{"wallet":"0x007b8961239af104bb5fdc8afb64e52b5bf0c181","displayName":"LuytensStar","pseudonym":"Triangular-Pea","raw":{"totalTrades":3100,"totalVolume":17975.55,"totalPnl":-17754.74,"realizedPnl":-891.86,"unrealizedPnl":-16862.88,"winRate":0,"openPositions":0,"resolvedBets":1000,"uniqueMarkets":363},"calibration":7,"profitability":0,"consistency":56,"discipline":50,"sampleSize":100,"liveEdge":40,"trustScore":33,"trustGrade":"F","trustTier":"DANGER","confidence":{"level":"high","margin":3,"resolvedBets":1000,"description":"F/33 [CI95: F→F, 32-34] (1000 resolved bets)","ci95":{"scoreLow":32,"scoreHigh":34,"gradeLow":"INS","gradeHigh":"INS","iterations":1000,"insufficientData":true}},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.043439361702127643,"totalBets":188,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.043439361702127643,"error":0.043439361702127643},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.1495442307692308,"totalBets":104,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.1495442307692308,"error":0.1495442307692308},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.24402307692307695,"totalBets":52,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.24402307692307695,"error":0.24402307692307695},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.349675,"totalBets":32,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.349675,"error":0.349675},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.4341562499999999,"totalBets":32,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.4341562499999999,"error":0.4341562499999999},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5535222222222221,"totalBets":36,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.5535222222222221,"error":0.5535222222222221},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6526939393939395,"totalBets":66,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.6526939393939395,"error":0.6526939393939395},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.7520423076923074,"totalBets":104,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.7520423076923074,"error":0.7520423076923074},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8620716216216217,"totalBets":148,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.8620716216216217,"error":0.8620716216216217},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.9553386554621855,"totalBets":238,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.9553386554621855,"error":0.9553386554621855}],"brierScore":0.4417,"calibrationError":0.5577,"resolvedBets":1000,"overconfidenceBias":0.5577,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":0,"luck":26.4,"edge":-18.25},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.4409,"resolution":0,"uncertainty":0},"brierSkillScore":-0.7667,"logLoss":1.4119,"logLossSkill":-177.5607,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":0,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":0}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0x007b8961239af104bb5fdc8afb64e52b5bf0c181","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1777783826,"firstTxDate":"2026-05-03","walletAgeDays":47,"totalTransactions":2000,"uniqueCounterparties":0,"inboundTxCount":0,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":0,"totalUsdcIn":0,"totalUsdcOut":0,"protocolsUsed":[],"uniqueContractsInteracted":1,"contractInteractions":0,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0,"medianTxIntervalSec":0,"burstTxCount":0,"provenanceScore":35,"provenanceGrade":"D","flags":["Limited counterparties: only 0 unique addresses","No contract interactions despite activity — possible EOA-only transfers"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2000 txs","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-06-20T04:34:55.907Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":null,"pnlVerified":false},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0x007b8961239af104bb5fdc8afb64e52b5bf0c181","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":0,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":0,"largestWithdrawal":0,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"never","fetchedAt":"2026-06-20T04:37:25.355Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 47 days, 2000 txs, provenance grade D. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $0 in / $0 out across 0 withdrawal tx since never.","3100 total trades across 363 markets.","1000 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 55.8% — needs improvement.","Skill: 0/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 26/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -76.7% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.4409 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.","Log loss: 1.4119 (skill: -17756.1% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events."],"flags":["Weak Brier score: 0.4417","Overconfidence bias: 0.558","Brier Skill Score: -76.7% — performing worse than naive baseline","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Net loss: -$17755 total PnL","Low win rate: 0%","Concentrated portfolio: 100% in single market","young_wallet: Wallet is only 0 days old — force-INS (threshold 30d)"],"greenFlags":["Well-diversified: 363 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns"],"scoredAt":"2026-06-20T04:37:27.552Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance.","antiSybil":{"eligibleForGrade":false,"ageFactor":0,"reason":"Wallet is only 0 days old — force-INS (threshold 30d)","ageDaysUsed":0}}