{"wallet":"0x03805a13a0b3e058f55f6c6af95389d4f431073d","displayName":"donthackme","pseudonym":"Velvety-Burn","raw":{"totalTrades":3100,"totalVolume":264072.45,"totalPnl":-42129.64,"realizedPnl":845316.57,"unrealizedPnl":-887446.21,"winRate":0.023,"openPositions":138,"resolvedBets":862,"uniqueMarkets":608},"calibration":57,"profitability":8,"consistency":100,"discipline":97,"sampleSize":100,"liveEdge":75,"trustScore":36,"trustGrade":"D","trustTier":"RISKY","confidence":{"level":"high","margin":3,"resolvedBets":862,"description":"D/36 [CI95: D→D, 35-36] (862 resolved bets)","ci95":{"scoreLow":35,"scoreHigh":36,"gradeLow":"INS","gradeHigh":"INS","iterations":1000,"insufficientData":true}},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.03296223404255337,"totalBets":752,"correctBets":14,"actualRate":0.018617021276595744,"expectedRate":0.03296223404255337,"error":0.014345212765957627},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.1302540540540541,"totalBets":74,"correctBets":4,"actualRate":0.05405405405405406,"expectedRate":0.1302540540540541,"error":0.07620000000000005},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.2000000000000001,"totalBets":28,"correctBets":2,"actualRate":0.07142857142857142,"expectedRate":0.2000000000000001,"error":0.12857142857142867},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.3333,"totalBets":2,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.3333,"error":0.3333},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.7855,"totalBets":2,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.7855,"error":0.7855},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.9795499999999999,"totalBets":4,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.9795499999999999,"error":0.9795499999999999}],"brierScore":0.0305,"calibrationError":0.0304,"resolvedBets":862,"overconfidenceBias":0.0304,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":56.4,"luck":56.2,"edge":-95.89},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.0074,"resolution":0.0002,"uncertainty":0.0227},"brierSkillScore":-0.3466,"logLoss":0.1459,"logLossSkill":-0.3235,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":0,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":0}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0x03805a13a0b3e058f55f6c6af95389d4f431073d","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1779989624,"firstTxDate":"2026-05-28","walletAgeDays":19,"totalTransactions":2000,"uniqueCounterparties":0,"inboundTxCount":0,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":7,"totalUsdcIn":51374.16,"totalUsdcOut":51374.16,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":2,"contractInteractions":0,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0,"medianTxIntervalSec":0,"burstTxCount":0,"provenanceScore":48,"provenanceGrade":"C","flags":["Young wallet: only 19 days old","Limited counterparties: only 0 unique addresses","No contract interactions despite activity — possible EOA-only transfers"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2000 txs","Significant USDC flow: $102,748","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-06-17T10:51:01.764Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":42129.64,"pnlVerified":true},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0x03805a13a0b3e058f55f6c6af95389d4f431073d","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":0,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":0,"largestWithdrawal":0,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"never","fetchedAt":"2026-06-17T10:51:01.355Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 19 days, 2000 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $0 in / $0 out across 0 withdrawal tx since never.","3100 total trades across 608 markets.","862 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 3.0% — excellent.","Skill: 56/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 56/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -34.7% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.0074 RES=0.0002 UNC=0.0227.","Log loss: 0.1459 (skill: -32.4% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events."],"flags":["Brier Skill Score: -34.7% — performing worse than naive baseline","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Penny-lottery strategy: 87% of bets at sub-$0.10 — score penalized by 30 pts","Net loss: -$42130 total PnL","Low win rate: 2%","young_wallet: Wallet is only 11 days old — force-INS (threshold 30d)"],"greenFlags":["Strong Brier score: 0.0305","Strong live edge: 138 open positions trending profitable","Well-diversified: 608 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns"],"scoredAt":"2026-06-17T10:51:06.387Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance.","antiSybil":{"eligibleForGrade":false,"ageFactor":0,"reason":"Wallet is only 11 days old — force-INS (threshold 30d)","ageDaysUsed":11}}