{"wallet":"0x0656f7350dc179374c7d938633743c203ab459a1","displayName":"Trader 0x0656f7...","pseudonym":"","raw":{"totalTrades":229,"totalVolume":1942.71,"totalPnl":-125.92,"realizedPnl":2.81,"unrealizedPnl":-128.73,"winRate":0.429,"openPositions":16,"resolvedBets":84,"uniqueMarkets":93},"calibration":25,"profitability":27,"consistency":0,"discipline":93,"sampleSize":75,"liveEdge":67,"trustScore":12,"trustGrade":"F","trustTier":"DANGER","confidence":{"level":"medium","margin":8,"resolvedBets":84,"description":"F/12 ± 8 (medium confidence, 84 resolved bets)"},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.03206044511039814,"totalBets":80,"correctBets":33,"actualRate":0.4125,"expectedRate":0.03206044511039814,"error":0.38043955488960185},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.1499,"totalBets":1,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.1499,"error":0.1499},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.9768303402754069,"totalBets":3,"correctBets":3,"actualRate":1,"expectedRate":0.9768303402754069,"error":0.02316965972459306}],"brierScore":0.3716,"calibrationError":0.3649,"resolvedBets":84,"overconfidenceBias":-0.3614,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":18.5,"luck":32,"edge":-308.66},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.1381,"resolution":0.0141,"uncertainty":0.2449},"brierSkillScore":-0.5174,"logLoss":1.4393,"logLossSkill":-1.1077,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":7.6,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":8}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0x0656f7350dc179374c7d938633743c203ab459a1","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1775754833,"firstTxDate":"2026-04-09","walletAgeDays":10,"totalTransactions":664,"uniqueCounterparties":4,"inboundTxCount":1,"outboundTxCount":130,"totalEthReceived":"100.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"100.000000","usdcTransfers":508,"totalUsdcIn":3525.23,"totalUsdcOut":3522.72,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)","Polymarket Neg Risk Adapter"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":26,"contractInteractions":130,"botScore":80,"washTradingScore":80,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0.78,"medianTxIntervalSec":8,"burstTxCount":34,"provenanceScore":51,"provenanceGrade":"C","flags":["Young wallet: only 10 days old","Bot-like behavior detected: 34 burst txs, median interval 8s","Wash trading signal: 78% of txs with single counterparty"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 664 txs"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T03:45:37.657Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":128.43,"pnlVerified":true},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0x0656f7350dc179374c7d938633743c203ab459a1","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":1457.9,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":45,"largestWithdrawal":100.81,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-04-11","fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T03:45:35.518Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 10 days, 664 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 80/100, wash trading score: 80/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $1,458 in / $0 out across 45 withdrawal tx since 2026-04-11.","229 total trades across 93 markets.","84 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 36.5% — needs improvement.","Skill: 19/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 32/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -51.7% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.1381 RES=0.0141 UNC=0.2449.","Log loss: 1.4393 (skill: -110.8% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.","Timeliness: avg entry 7.6 days before resolution, 0% early mover."],"flags":["Weak Brier score: 0.3716","Brier Skill Score: -51.7% — performing worse than naive baseline","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Penny-lottery strategy: 95% of bets at sub-$0.10 — score penalized by 30 pts","Net loss: -$126 total PnL","On-chain: bot-like trading patterns detected (bot score: 80)","On-chain: wash trading signal — 78% of txs with single counterparty"],"greenFlags":["Conservative (underconfident) bias","Well-diversified: 93 unique markets"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-20T03:45:38.136Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance."}