{"wallet":"0x069cd074ad3bcfbd6fd82478aad02916bff5cf63","displayName":"Under-btc-low","pseudonym":"Ripe-Suggestion","raw":{"totalTrades":1660,"totalVolume":5103.33,"totalPnl":0,"realizedPnl":0,"unrealizedPnl":0,"winRate":0,"openPositions":0,"resolvedBets":142,"uniqueMarkets":285},"calibration":9,"profitability":40,"consistency":81,"discipline":50,"sampleSize":88,"liveEdge":40,"trustScore":39,"trustGrade":"D","trustTier":"RISKY","confidence":{"level":"medium","margin":8,"resolvedBets":142,"description":"D/39 ± 8 (medium confidence, 142 resolved bets)"},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5463514804908443,"totalBets":62,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.5463514804908443,"error":0.5463514804908443},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6375654490579138,"totalBets":43,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.6375654490579138,"error":0.6375654490579138},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.7402407696120084,"totalBets":22,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.7402407696120084,"error":0.7402407696120084},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8473618958165139,"totalBets":8,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.8473618958165139,"error":0.8473618958165139},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.9420518291430323,"totalBets":7,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.9420518291430323,"error":0.9420518291430323}],"brierScore":0.4234,"calibrationError":0.6405,"resolvedBets":142,"overconfidenceBias":0.6405,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":0,"luck":35.8,"edge":-14.62},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.4225,"resolution":0,"uncertainty":0},"brierSkillScore":-0.6936,"logLoss":1.119,"logLossSkill":-140.5211,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":1,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":1}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0x069cd074ad3bcfbd6fd82478aad02916bff5cf63","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1776534920,"firstTxDate":"2026-04-18","walletAgeDays":1,"totalTransactions":2139,"uniqueCounterparties":2,"inboundTxCount":139,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":1999,"totalUsdcIn":2150.1,"totalUsdcOut":2052.55,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":3,"contractInteractions":139,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":80,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0.99,"medianTxIntervalSec":296,"burstTxCount":0,"provenanceScore":38,"provenanceGrade":"D","flags":["Very new wallet: 1 days old — possible sybil","Limited counterparties: only 2 unique addresses","Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction","Wash trading signal: 99% of txs with single counterparty"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2139 txs","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T03:16:40.223Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":null,"pnlVerified":false},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0x069cd074ad3bcfbd6fd82478aad02916bff5cf63","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":209.06,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":55,"largestWithdrawal":16.73,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-04-18","fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T03:16:40.338Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 1 days, 2139 txs, provenance grade D. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 80/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $209 in / $0 out across 55 withdrawal tx since 2026-04-18.","1660 total trades across 285 markets.","142 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 64.0% — needs improvement.","Skill: 0/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 36/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -69.4% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.4225 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.","Log loss: 1.1190 (skill: -14052.1% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.","Timeliness: avg entry 1.0 days before resolution, 0% early mover."],"flags":["Weak Brier score: 0.4234","Overconfidence bias: 0.640","Brier Skill Score: -69.4% — performing worse than naive baseline","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address","Low win rate: 0%","Concentrated portfolio: 100% in single market","On-chain: wallet only 1 days old on Polygon","On-chain: wash trading signal — 99% of txs with single counterparty"],"greenFlags":["Well-diversified: 285 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-20T03:16:46.129Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance.","cached":true,"cachedAt":1776655006129}