{"wallet":"0x06f22ff6d9362ce82243f8ca594c97485d9c1269","displayName":"vkvkgjerkgk","pseudonym":"Reckless-Epoxy-Talent","raw":{"totalTrades":3100,"totalVolume":2524027.56,"totalPnl":403750.25,"realizedPnl":502537.05,"unrealizedPnl":-98786.8,"winRate":0.129,"openPositions":10,"resolvedBets":241,"uniqueMarkets":211},"calibration":9,"profitability":72,"consistency":55,"discipline":78,"sampleSize":88,"liveEdge":63,"trustScore":54,"trustGrade":"C","trustTier":"DEVELOPING","confidence":{"level":"high","margin":3,"resolvedBets":241,"description":"C/54 [CI95: C→C, 52-56] (241 resolved bets)","ci95":{"scoreLow":52,"scoreHigh":56,"gradeLow":"INS","gradeHigh":"INS","iterations":1000,"insufficientData":true}},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.03649886464202267,"totalBets":48,"correctBets":7,"actualRate":0.14583333333333334,"expectedRate":0.03649886464202267,"error":0.10933446869131067},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.13277413544477704,"totalBets":15,"correctBets":4,"actualRate":0.26666666666666666,"expectedRate":0.13277413544477704,"error":0.13389253122188963},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.2665283756728441,"totalBets":12,"correctBets":2,"actualRate":0.16666666666666666,"expectedRate":0.2665283756728441,"error":0.09986170900617744},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.3509294751622655,"totalBets":18,"correctBets":5,"actualRate":0.2777777777777778,"expectedRate":0.3509294751622655,"error":0.07315169738448773},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.4588517302927279,"totalBets":49,"correctBets":3,"actualRate":0.061224489795918366,"expectedRate":0.4588517302927279,"error":0.39762724049680953},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.550500670142152,"totalBets":28,"correctBets":3,"actualRate":0.10714285714285714,"expectedRate":0.550500670142152,"error":0.44335781299929483},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6378413243009503,"totalBets":20,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.6378413243009503,"error":0.6378413243009503},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.7445540211336104,"totalBets":12,"correctBets":1,"actualRate":0.08333333333333333,"expectedRate":0.7445540211336104,"error":0.661220687800277},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.832358960489408,"totalBets":11,"correctBets":4,"actualRate":0.36363636363636365,"expectedRate":0.832358960489408,"error":0.4687225968530444},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.953046026883993,"totalBets":28,"correctBets":2,"actualRate":0.07142857142857142,"expectedRate":0.953046026883993,"error":0.8816174554554216}],"brierScore":0.3204,"calibrationError":0.3826,"resolvedBets":241,"overconfidenceBias":0.3224,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":15.4,"luck":69.7,"edge":-37.99},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.2152,"resolution":0.0083,"uncertainty":0.1121},"brierSkillScore":-1.859,"logLoss":0.9908,"logLossSkill":-1.5817,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":3.9,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":4}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0x06f22ff6d9362ce82243f8ca594c97485d9c1269","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1781537422,"firstTxDate":"2026-06-15","walletAgeDays":18,"totalTransactions":2000,"uniqueCounterparties":0,"inboundTxCount":0,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":0,"totalUsdcIn":0,"totalUsdcOut":0,"protocolsUsed":[],"uniqueContractsInteracted":1,"contractInteractions":0,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0,"medianTxIntervalSec":0,"burstTxCount":0,"provenanceScore":30,"provenanceGrade":"D","flags":["Young wallet: only 18 days old","Limited counterparties: only 0 unique addresses","No contract interactions despite activity — possible EOA-only transfers"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2000 txs","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-07-04T01:59:27.975Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":null,"pnlVerified":false},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0x06f22ff6d9362ce82243f8ca594c97485d9c1269","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":0,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":0,"largestWithdrawal":0,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"never","fetchedAt":"2026-07-04T01:59:37.977Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 18 days, 2000 txs, provenance grade D. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $0 in / $0 out across 0 withdrawal tx since never.","3100 total trades across 211 markets.","241 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 38.3% — needs improvement.","Skill: 15/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 70/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -185.9% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.2152 RES=0.0083 UNC=0.1121.","Log loss: 0.9908 (skill: -158.2% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.","Timeliness: avg entry 3.9 days before resolution, 0% early mover."],"flags":["Overconfidence bias: 0.322","Brier Skill Score: -185.9% — performing worse than naive baseline","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Low win rate: 13%","young_wallet: Wallet is only 0 days old — force-INS (threshold 30d)"],"greenFlags":["Net profitable: +$403750 total PnL","Well-diversified: 211 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns"],"scoredAt":"2026-07-04T01:59:38.267Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance.","antiSybil":{"eligibleForGrade":false,"ageFactor":0,"reason":"Wallet is only 0 days old — force-INS (threshold 30d)","ageDaysUsed":0}}