{"wallet":"0x09ea7b6e1cc4a627870509e35a26e68993526992","displayName":"Freeman777","pseudonym":"Comfortable-Forehead-Present","raw":{"totalTrades":772,"totalVolume":2023.49,"totalPnl":-808.91,"realizedPnl":-35.24,"unrealizedPnl":-773.67,"winRate":0,"openPositions":0,"resolvedBets":109,"uniqueMarkets":155},"calibration":28,"profitability":0,"consistency":80,"discipline":50,"sampleSize":88,"liveEdge":40,"trustScore":41,"trustGrade":"D","trustTier":"RISKY","confidence":{"level":"medium","margin":8,"resolvedBets":109,"description":"D/41 [CI95: D→D, 40-42] (109 resolved bets)","ci95":{"scoreLow":40,"scoreHigh":42,"gradeLow":"INS","gradeHigh":"INS","iterations":1000,"insufficientData":true}},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.34299999999999997,"totalBets":2,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.34299999999999997,"error":0.34299999999999997},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.4545082375381357,"totalBets":66,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.4545082375381357,"error":0.4545082375381357},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5417069245674401,"totalBets":25,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.5417069245674401,"error":0.5417069245674401},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6448862897476958,"totalBets":11,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.6448862897476958,"error":0.6448862897476958},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.7589137494933497,"totalBets":4,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.7589137494933497,"error":0.7589137494933497},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8516529994456631,"totalBets":1,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.8516529994456631,"error":0.8516529994456631}],"brierScore":0.265,"calibrationError":0.5065,"resolvedBets":109,"overconfidenceBias":0.5065,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":0,"luck":16.5,"edge":-82.82},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.2643,"resolution":0,"uncertainty":0},"brierSkillScore":-0.0599,"logLoss":0.7295,"logLossSkill":-91.2592,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":0.7,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":1}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0x09ea7b6e1cc4a627870509e35a26e68993526992","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1782501647,"firstTxDate":"2026-06-26","walletAgeDays":3,"totalTransactions":879,"uniqueCounterparties":0,"inboundTxCount":0,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":4,"totalUsdcIn":198.05,"totalUsdcOut":198.05,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":2,"contractInteractions":0,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0,"medianTxIntervalSec":0,"burstTxCount":0,"provenanceScore":33,"provenanceGrade":"D","flags":["Very new wallet: 3 days old — possible sybil","Limited counterparties: only 0 unique addresses","No contract interactions despite activity — possible EOA-only transfers"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 879 txs","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-06-30T15:45:19.859Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":808.91,"pnlVerified":false},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0x09ea7b6e1cc4a627870509e35a26e68993526992","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":0,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":0,"largestWithdrawal":0,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"never","fetchedAt":"2026-06-30T15:45:19.822Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 3 days, 879 txs, provenance grade D. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $0 in / $0 out across 0 withdrawal tx since never.","772 total trades across 155 markets.","109 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 50.6% — needs improvement.","Skill: 0/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 17/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -6.0% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.2643 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.","Log loss: 0.7295 (skill: -9125.9% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.","Timeliness: avg entry 0.7 days before resolution, 0% early mover."],"flags":["Overconfidence bias: 0.506","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Net loss: -$809 total PnL","Low win rate: 0%","Concentrated portfolio: 100% in single market","On-chain: wallet only 3 days old on Polygon","PnL divergence: $809 gap between API and on-chain USDC flows","young_wallet: Wallet is only 0 days old — force-INS (threshold 30d)"],"greenFlags":["Well-diversified: 155 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns"],"scoredAt":"2026-06-30T15:45:21.617Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance.","antiSybil":{"eligibleForGrade":false,"ageFactor":0,"reason":"Wallet is only 0 days old — force-INS (threshold 30d)","ageDaysUsed":0}}