{"wallet":"0x0c7c5204404e9d5402d258fedac59c7212bae4cb","displayName":"3e-4","pseudonym":"Palatable-Patent","raw":{"totalTrades":3100,"totalVolume":4201.2,"totalPnl":-125595.15,"realizedPnl":0,"unrealizedPnl":-125595.15,"winRate":0,"openPositions":0,"resolvedBets":1000,"uniqueMarkets":293},"calibration":14,"profitability":0,"consistency":59,"discipline":50,"sampleSize":100,"liveEdge":40,"trustScore":35,"trustGrade":"D","trustTier":"RISKY","confidence":{"level":"high","margin":3,"resolvedBets":1000,"description":"D/35 [CI95: F→D, 34-36] (1000 resolved bets)","ci95":{"scoreLow":34,"scoreHigh":36,"gradeLow":"F","gradeHigh":"D","iterations":1000,"insufficientData":false}},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.07030952380952381,"totalBets":84,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.07030952380952381,"error":0.07030952380952381},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.15204623655913974,"totalBets":186,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.15204623655913974,"error":0.15204623655913974},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.25054444444444435,"totalBets":108,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.25054444444444435,"error":0.25054444444444435},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.3476680000000001,"totalBets":50,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.3476680000000001,"error":0.3476680000000001},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.45902608695652186,"totalBets":46,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.45902608695652186,"error":0.45902608695652186},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5628409090909091,"totalBets":44,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.5628409090909091,"error":0.5628409090909091},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6583041666666666,"totalBets":48,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.6583041666666666,"error":0.6583041666666666},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.7501586956521741,"totalBets":92,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.7501586956521741,"error":0.7501586956521741},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8510610526315786,"totalBets":190,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.8510610526315786,"error":0.8510610526315786},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.9346276315789478,"totalBets":152,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.9346276315789478,"error":0.9346276315789478}],"brierScore":0.3849,"calibrationError":0.5289,"resolvedBets":1000,"overconfidenceBias":0.5289,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":0,"luck":32.8,"edge":-49.94},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.3841,"resolution":0,"uncertainty":0},"brierSkillScore":-0.5395,"logLoss":1.1327,"logLossSkill":-142.2523,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":0,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":0}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0x0c7c5204404e9d5402d258fedac59c7212bae4cb","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1767631383,"firstTxDate":"2026-01-05","walletAgeDays":121,"totalTransactions":2000,"uniqueCounterparties":0,"inboundTxCount":0,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":2000,"totalUsdcIn":4948.45,"totalUsdcOut":3023.33,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":1,"contractInteractions":0,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0,"medianTxIntervalSec":0,"burstTxCount":0,"provenanceScore":53,"provenanceGrade":"C","flags":["Limited counterparties: only 0 unique addresses","No contract interactions despite activity — possible EOA-only transfers"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2000 txs","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-05-07T15:39:08.041Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":127520.27,"pnlVerified":false},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0x0c7c5204404e9d5402d258fedac59c7212bae4cb","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":2948.45,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":70,"largestWithdrawal":158.78,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-01-05","fetchedAt":"2026-05-07T15:42:47.030Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 121 days, 2000 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $2,948 in / $0 out across 70 withdrawal tx since 2026-01-05.","3100 total trades across 293 markets.","1000 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 52.9% — needs improvement.","Skill: 0/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 33/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -53.9% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.3841 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.","Log loss: 1.1327 (skill: -14225.2% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events."],"flags":["Weak Brier score: 0.3849","Overconfidence bias: 0.529","Brier Skill Score: -53.9% — performing worse than naive baseline","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Net loss: -$125595 total PnL","Low win rate: 0%","Concentrated portfolio: 100% in single market","PnL divergence: $127520 gap between API and on-chain USDC flows"],"greenFlags":["Well-diversified: 293 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns"],"scoredAt":"2026-05-07T15:42:48.930Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance.","antiSybil":{"eligibleForGrade":true,"ageFactor":0.43692354217240403,"reason":"Wallet age 121d → difficulty factor 0.44","ageDaysUsed":121}}