{"wallet":"0x0f4f2dcdfc5308635491acb579638eb16c43c10f","displayName":"bridgerrs","pseudonym":"Dull-Faucet","raw":{"totalTrades":1715,"totalVolume":4601.18,"totalPnl":240.3,"realizedPnl":0,"unrealizedPnl":240.3,"winRate":0,"openPositions":4,"resolvedBets":268,"uniqueMarkets":291},"calibration":7,"profitability":50,"consistency":65,"discipline":85,"sampleSize":100,"liveEdge":100,"trustScore":55,"trustGrade":"C","trustTier":"DEVELOPING","confidence":{"level":"high","margin":3,"resolvedBets":268,"description":"C/55 ± 3 (high confidence, 268 resolved bets)"},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.010000000000000009,"totalBets":1,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.010000000000000009,"error":0.010000000000000009},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.14169554177690122,"totalBets":6,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.14169554177690122,"error":0.14169554177690122},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.2662463301806727,"totalBets":7,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.2662463301806727,"error":0.2662463301806727},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.34941458432031847,"totalBets":20,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.34941458432031847,"error":0.34941458432031847},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.45799275206463286,"totalBets":33,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.45799275206463286,"error":0.45799275206463286},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5578744673839656,"totalBets":35,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.5578744673839656,"error":0.5578744673839656},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6500453596632684,"totalBets":60,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.6500453596632684,"error":0.6500453596632684},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.743764013079956,"totalBets":49,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.743764013079956,"error":0.743764013079956},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.845294109473738,"totalBets":37,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.845294109473738,"error":0.845294109473738},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.944538577362626,"totalBets":20,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.944538577362626,"error":0.944538577362626}],"brierScore":0.4396,"calibrationError":0.6342,"resolvedBets":268,"overconfidenceBias":0.6342,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":0,"luck":16.5,"edge":-45.59},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.4389,"resolution":0,"uncertainty":0},"brierSkillScore":-0.7584,"logLoss":1.1964,"logLossSkill":-150.301,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":1.8,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":2}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0x0f4f2dcdfc5308635491acb579638eb16c43c10f","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1776304148,"firstTxDate":"2026-04-16","walletAgeDays":4,"totalTransactions":2042,"uniqueCounterparties":2,"inboundTxCount":42,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":1999,"totalUsdcIn":5717.27,"totalUsdcOut":5052.85,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":3,"contractInteractions":42,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":80,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0.95,"medianTxIntervalSec":2658,"burstTxCount":0,"provenanceScore":43,"provenanceGrade":"C","flags":["Very new wallet: 4 days old — possible sybil","Limited counterparties: only 2 unique addresses","Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction","Wash trading signal: 95% of txs with single counterparty"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2042 txs","Significant USDC flow: $10,770","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T03:16:34.511Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":424.12,"pnlVerified":true},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0x0f4f2dcdfc5308635491acb579638eb16c43c10f","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":3062.98,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":117,"largestWithdrawal":135.22,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-04-17","fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T03:16:34.725Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 4 days, 2042 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 80/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $3,063 in / $0 out across 117 withdrawal tx since 2026-04-17.","1715 total trades across 291 markets.","268 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 63.4% — needs improvement.","Skill: 0/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 17/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -75.8% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.4389 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.","Log loss: 1.1964 (skill: -15030.1% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.","Timeliness: avg entry 1.8 days before resolution, 0% early mover."],"flags":["Weak Brier score: 0.4396","Overconfidence bias: 0.634","Brier Skill Score: -75.8% — performing worse than naive baseline","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address","Low win rate: 0%","On-chain: wallet only 4 days old on Polygon","On-chain: wash trading signal — 95% of txs with single counterparty"],"greenFlags":["Strong live edge: 4 open positions trending profitable","Net profitable: +$240 total PnL","Well-diversified: 291 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-20T03:16:35.830Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance."}