{"wallet":"0x0f520c68e29957150b32183eacf119e493d15978","displayName":"Agreeable-Sherbet","pseudonym":"Agreeable-Sherbet","raw":{"totalTrades":2232,"totalVolume":10985.85,"totalPnl":-8853.36,"realizedPnl":111.04,"unrealizedPnl":-8964.4,"winRate":0,"openPositions":0,"resolvedBets":914,"uniqueMarkets":843},"calibration":20,"profitability":0,"consistency":68,"discipline":50,"sampleSize":100,"liveEdge":40,"trustScore":38,"trustGrade":"D","trustTier":"RISKY","confidence":{"level":"high","margin":3,"resolvedBets":914,"description":"D/38 [CI95: D→D, 37-39] (914 resolved bets)","ci95":{"scoreLow":37,"scoreHigh":39,"gradeLow":"INS","gradeHigh":"INS","iterations":1000,"insufficientData":true}},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.07404400000000003,"totalBets":50,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.07404400000000003,"error":0.07404400000000003},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.14447755102040807,"totalBets":98,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.14447755102040807,"error":0.14447755102040807},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.25051833333333345,"totalBets":120,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.25051833333333345,"error":0.25051833333333345},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.3497111111111113,"totalBets":108,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.3497111111111113,"error":0.3497111111111113},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.44374318181818173,"totalBets":88,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.44374318181818173,"error":0.44374318181818173},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5489781250000001,"totalBets":64,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.5489781250000001,"error":0.5489781250000001},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6496568627450979,"totalBets":102,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.6496568627450979,"error":0.6496568627450979},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.7434169491525424,"totalBets":118,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.7434169491525424,"error":0.7434169491525424},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8545869565217391,"totalBets":92,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.8545869565217391,"error":0.8545869565217391},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.9404513513513516,"totalBets":74,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.9404513513513516,"error":0.9404513513513516}],"brierScore":0.3297,"calibrationError":0.5056,"resolvedBets":914,"overconfidenceBias":0.5056,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":0,"luck":100,"edge":-123.53},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.3289,"resolution":0,"uncertainty":0},"brierSkillScore":-0.3186,"logLoss":0.947,"logLossSkill":-118.7579,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":0,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":0}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0x0f520c68e29957150b32183eacf119e493d15978","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1781078802,"firstTxDate":"2026-06-10","walletAgeDays":20,"totalTransactions":2000,"uniqueCounterparties":0,"inboundTxCount":0,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":4,"totalUsdcIn":53.39,"totalUsdcOut":53.39,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":2,"contractInteractions":0,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0,"medianTxIntervalSec":0,"burstTxCount":0,"provenanceScore":38,"provenanceGrade":"D","flags":["Young wallet: only 20 days old","Limited counterparties: only 0 unique addresses","No contract interactions despite activity — possible EOA-only transfers"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2000 txs","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-06-30T15:45:44.362Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":8853.36,"pnlVerified":false},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0x0f520c68e29957150b32183eacf119e493d15978","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":0,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":0,"largestWithdrawal":0,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"never","fetchedAt":"2026-06-30T15:45:44.472Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 20 days, 2000 txs, provenance grade D. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $0 in / $0 out across 0 withdrawal tx since never.","2232 total trades across 843 markets.","914 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 50.6% — needs improvement.","Skill: 0/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 100/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -31.9% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.3289 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.","Log loss: 0.9470 (skill: -11875.8% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events."],"flags":["Overconfidence bias: 0.506","High luck component: 100/100 — returns may not persist","Brier Skill Score: -31.9% — performing worse than naive baseline","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Net loss: -$8853 total PnL","Low win rate: 0%","Concentrated portfolio: 100% in single market","PnL divergence: $8853 gap between API and on-chain USDC flows","young_wallet: Wallet is only 0 days old — force-INS (threshold 30d)"],"greenFlags":["Well-diversified: 843 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns"],"scoredAt":"2026-06-30T15:45:47.368Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance.","antiSybil":{"eligibleForGrade":false,"ageFactor":0,"reason":"Wallet is only 0 days old — force-INS (threshold 30d)","ageDaysUsed":0}}