{"wallet":"0x0fce7c54120bfc84407035579f942a83290263d5","displayName":"mads1","pseudonym":"Emotional-Jacket","raw":{"totalTrades":3100,"totalVolume":143199.78,"totalPnl":-117900.45,"realizedPnl":544.98,"unrealizedPnl":-118445.43,"winRate":0.029,"openPositions":166,"resolvedBets":834,"uniqueMarkets":228},"calibration":9,"profitability":0,"consistency":94,"discipline":97,"sampleSize":100,"liveEdge":54,"trustScore":42,"trustGrade":"D","trustTier":"RISKY","confidence":{"level":"high","margin":3,"resolvedBets":834,"description":"D/42 [CI95: D→D, 41-43] (834 resolved bets)","ci95":{"scoreLow":41,"scoreHigh":43,"gradeLow":"D","gradeHigh":"D","iterations":1000,"insufficientData":false}},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.054722666666666614,"totalBets":150,"correctBets":24,"actualRate":0.16,"expectedRate":0.054722666666666614,"error":0.10527733333333339},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.142462,"totalBets":100,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.142462,"error":0.142462},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.25192195121951233,"totalBets":82,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.25192195121951233,"error":0.25192195121951233},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.3568137931034482,"totalBets":116,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.3568137931034482,"error":0.3568137931034482},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.44614861111111115,"totalBets":144,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.44614861111111115,"error":0.44614861111111115},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5423347826086956,"totalBets":92,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.5423347826086956,"error":0.5423347826086956},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6519076923076924,"totalBets":52,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.6519076923076924,"error":0.6519076923076924},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.7487722222222222,"totalBets":36,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.7487722222222222,"error":0.7487722222222222},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8464375000000001,"totalBets":32,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.8464375000000001,"error":0.8464375000000001},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.9266466666666663,"totalBets":30,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.9266466666666663,"error":0.9266466666666663}],"brierScore":0.2308,"calibrationError":0.3861,"resolvedBets":834,"overconfidenceBias":0.3482,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":14.3,"luck":61.2,"edge":-82.06},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.2043,"resolution":0.0038,"uncertainty":0.0279},"brierSkillScore":-7.2589,"logLoss":0.7091,"logLossSkill":-4.435,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":0,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":0}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0x0fce7c54120bfc84407035579f942a83290263d5","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1775538365,"firstTxDate":"2026-04-07","walletAgeDays":89,"totalTransactions":2134,"uniqueCounterparties":53,"inboundTxCount":134,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":1999,"totalUsdcIn":31371.8,"totalUsdcOut":26423.77,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":3,"contractInteractions":134,"botScore":10,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0.07,"medianTxIntervalSec":1804,"burstTxCount":26,"provenanceScore":73,"provenanceGrade":"B","flags":["Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2134 txs","Diverse counterparties: 53 unique addresses","Significant USDC flow: $57,796","Human-like transaction patterns","Diverse trading network: 53 counterparties"],"fetchedAt":"2026-07-05T10:53:54.872Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":122848.48,"pnlVerified":false},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0x0fce7c54120bfc84407035579f942a83290263d5","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":18466.13,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":116,"largestWithdrawal":2327.39,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-04-07","fetchedAt":"2026-07-05T10:54:00.906Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 89 days, 2134 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 10/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $18,466 in / $0 out across 116 withdrawal tx since 2026-04-07.","3100 total trades across 228 markets.","834 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 38.6% — needs improvement.","Skill: 14/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 61/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -725.9% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.2043 RES=0.0038 UNC=0.0279.","Log loss: 0.7091 (skill: -443.5% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events."],"flags":["Overconfidence bias: 0.348","Brier Skill Score: -725.9% — performing worse than naive baseline","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address","Net loss: -$117900 total PnL","Low win rate: 3%","PnL divergence: $122848 gap between API and on-chain USDC flows"],"greenFlags":["Well-diversified: 228 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns","On-chain: diverse counterparty network","On-chain: $18,466 total USDC.e received from Polymarket contracts across 116 tx (Polygon)"],"scoredAt":"2026-07-05T10:54:02.229Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance.","antiSybil":{"eligibleForGrade":true,"ageFactor":0.33715255819183515,"reason":"Wallet age 88d → difficulty factor 0.34","ageDaysUsed":88}}