{"wallet":"0x1144d8872751425e6a6fcdc319e4f61979d83751","displayName":"Imperfect-Pension","pseudonym":"Imperfect-Pension","raw":{"totalTrades":2900,"totalVolume":7207.31,"totalPnl":-80.89,"realizedPnl":0,"unrealizedPnl":-80.89,"winRate":0,"openPositions":2,"resolvedBets":477,"uniqueMarkets":1032},"calibration":8,"profitability":38,"consistency":62,"discipline":75,"sampleSize":100,"liveEdge":100,"trustScore":51,"trustGrade":"C","trustTier":"DEVELOPING","confidence":{"level":"high","margin":3,"resolvedBets":477,"description":"C/51 ± 3 (high confidence, 477 resolved bets)"},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.03500000000000003,"totalBets":2,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.03500000000000003,"error":0.03500000000000003},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.1401305503900365,"totalBets":4,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.1401305503900365,"error":0.1401305503900365},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.2513667621800005,"totalBets":12,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.2513667621800005,"error":0.2513667621800005},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.3500023725146286,"totalBets":39,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.3500023725146286,"error":0.3500023725146286},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.4536850620853403,"totalBets":72,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.4536850620853403,"error":0.4536850620853403},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5509549076331747,"totalBets":74,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.5509549076331747,"error":0.5509549076331747},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6486730041821385,"totalBets":92,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.6486730041821385,"error":0.6486730041821385},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.7450610046344924,"totalBets":84,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.7450610046344924,"error":0.7450610046344924},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8445176735091886,"totalBets":59,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.8445176735091886,"error":0.8445176735091886},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.9444965194566242,"totalBets":39,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.9444965194566242,"error":0.9444965194566242}],"brierScore":0.4308,"calibrationError":0.6282,"resolvedBets":477,"overconfidenceBias":0.6282,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":0,"luck":18.3,"edge":-40.44},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.43,"resolution":0,"uncertainty":0},"brierSkillScore":-0.7232,"logLoss":1.1927,"logLossSkill":-149.8358,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":3.9,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":4}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0x1144d8872751425e6a6fcdc319e4f61979d83751","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1774817334,"firstTxDate":"2026-03-29","walletAgeDays":21,"totalTransactions":2359,"uniqueCounterparties":3,"inboundTxCount":359,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":1999,"totalUsdcIn":5464.29,"totalUsdcOut":5350.46,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":3,"contractInteractions":359,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":50,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0.51,"medianTxIntervalSec":1588,"burstTxCount":0,"provenanceScore":53,"provenanceGrade":"C","flags":["Young wallet: only 21 days old","Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction","Counterparty concentration: 51% with top address"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2359 txs","Significant USDC flow: $10,815","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T03:18:42.252Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":194.72,"pnlVerified":true},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0x1144d8872751425e6a6fcdc319e4f61979d83751","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":4535.99,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":186,"largestWithdrawal":115.08,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-03-29","fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T03:18:40.717Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 21 days, 2359 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 50/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $4,536 in / $0 out across 186 withdrawal tx since 2026-03-29.","2900 total trades across 1032 markets.","477 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 62.8% — needs improvement.","Skill: 0/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 18/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -72.3% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.4300 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.","Log loss: 1.1927 (skill: -14983.6% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.","Timeliness: avg entry 3.9 days before resolution, 0% early mover."],"flags":["Weak Brier score: 0.4308","Overconfidence bias: 0.628","Brier Skill Score: -72.3% — performing worse than naive baseline","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address","Low win rate: 0%"],"greenFlags":["Well-diversified: 1032 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-20T03:18:46.736Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance.","cached":true,"cachedAt":1776655126736}