{"wallet":"0x129b7597d55236654aad74de9a3139253b259274","displayName":"geriatric-toad","pseudonym":"Tan-Hometown","raw":{"totalTrades":3100,"totalVolume":19987.98,"totalPnl":-184.7,"realizedPnl":0,"unrealizedPnl":-184.7,"winRate":0,"openPositions":6,"resolvedBets":31,"uniqueMarkets":32},"calibration":20,"profitability":38,"consistency":67,"discipline":87,"sampleSize":60,"liveEdge":41,"trustScore":41,"trustGrade":"D","trustTier":"RISKY","confidence":{"level":"low","margin":15,"resolvedBets":31,"description":"D/41 [CI95: D→D, 38-44] (31 resolved bets)","ci95":{"scoreLow":38,"scoreHigh":44,"gradeLow":"INS","gradeHigh":"INS","iterations":1000,"insufficientData":true}},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.3534884315540259,"totalBets":4,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.3534884315540259,"error":0.3534884315540259},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.44856872331427755,"totalBets":7,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.44856872331427755,"error":0.44856872331427755},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5355253548581415,"totalBets":9,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.5355253548581415,"error":0.5355253548581415},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6400976429458124,"totalBets":6,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.6400976429458124,"error":0.6400976429458124},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.7463185294840889,"totalBets":3,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.7463185294840889,"error":0.7463185294840889},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.889127216584529,"totalBets":1,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.889127216584529,"error":0.889127216584529},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.9367751884481377,"totalBets":1,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.9367751884481377,"error":0.9367751884481377}],"brierScore":0.3325,"calibrationError":0.5574,"resolvedBets":31,"overconfidenceBias":0.5574,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":0,"luck":16.7,"edge":-54.02},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.3318,"resolution":0,"uncertainty":0},"brierSkillScore":-0.3298,"logLoss":0.906,"logLossSkill":-113.5807,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":0.1,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":0}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0x129b7597d55236654aad74de9a3139253b259274","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1775527583,"firstTxDate":"2026-04-07","walletAgeDays":17,"totalTransactions":2965,"uniqueCounterparties":26,"inboundTxCount":965,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"128.000013","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"128.000013","usdcTransfers":1978,"totalUsdcIn":35861.61,"totalUsdcOut":33596.11,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":24,"contractInteractions":963,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":20,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0.96,"medianTxIntervalSec":302,"burstTxCount":14,"provenanceScore":63,"provenanceGrade":"B","flags":["Young wallet: only 17 days old","Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2965 txs","Significant USDC flow: $69,458","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-25T01:59:08.639Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":2450.2,"pnlVerified":true},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0x129b7597d55236654aad74de9a3139253b259274","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":33319.1,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":364,"largestWithdrawal":298.74,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-04-07","fetchedAt":"2026-04-25T01:59:08.734Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 17 days, 2965 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 20/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $33,319 in / $0 out across 364 withdrawal tx since 2026-04-07.","3100 total trades across 32 markets.","31 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 55.7% — needs improvement.","Skill: 0/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 17/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -33.0% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.3318 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.","Log loss: 0.9060 (skill: -11358.1% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events."],"flags":["Overconfidence bias: 0.557","Brier Skill Score: -33.0% — performing worse than naive baseline","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address","Net loss: -$185 total PnL","Low win rate: 0%","On-chain coverage gap: 364 Polymarket USDC withdrawals observed, but only 31 resolved bets recovered from data-api + CLOB. Grade based on a subset of the wallet's forecasting history.","young_wallet: Wallet is only 17 days old — force-INS (threshold 30d)"],"greenFlags":["Well-diversified: 32 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns","On-chain: $33,319 total USDC.e received from Polymarket contracts across 364 tx (Polygon)"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-25T01:59:14.814Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance.","antiSybil":{"eligibleForGrade":false,"ageFactor":0,"reason":"Wallet is only 17 days old — force-INS (threshold 30d)","ageDaysUsed":17}}