{"wallet":"0x14e72e19ea2f6e2be41504dd3268184ebe5fa32c","displayName":"Negyedikaccount","pseudonym":"Victorious-Tritone","raw":{"totalTrades":3100,"totalVolume":118853.49,"totalPnl":-656668.89,"realizedPnl":9664.96,"unrealizedPnl":-666333.85,"winRate":0,"openPositions":8,"resolvedBets":992,"uniqueMarkets":240},"calibration":26,"profitability":0,"consistency":83,"discipline":79,"sampleSize":100,"liveEdge":78,"trustScore":52,"trustGrade":"C","trustTier":"DEVELOPING","confidence":{"level":"high","margin":3,"resolvedBets":992,"description":"C/52 [CI95: C→C, 51-53] (992 resolved bets)","ci95":{"scoreLow":51,"scoreHigh":53,"gradeLow":"C","gradeHigh":"C","iterations":1000,"insufficientData":false}},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.07198181818181817,"totalBets":22,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.07198181818181817,"error":0.07198181818181817},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.16167352941176466,"totalBets":68,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.16167352941176466,"error":0.16167352941176466},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.25005849056603763,"totalBets":106,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.25005849056603763,"error":0.25005849056603763},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.3531112676056338,"totalBets":142,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.3531112676056338,"error":0.3531112676056338},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.4437134831460674,"totalBets":178,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.4437134831460674,"error":0.4437134831460674},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5475728260869566,"totalBets":184,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.5475728260869566,"error":0.5475728260869566},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6409440677966103,"totalBets":118,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.6409440677966103,"error":0.6409440677966103},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.7439190476190477,"totalBets":84,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.7439190476190477,"error":0.7439190476190477},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8518923076923078,"totalBets":52,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.8518923076923078,"error":0.8518923076923078},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.9441315789473683,"totalBets":38,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.9441315789473683,"error":0.9441315789473683}],"brierScore":0.2861,"calibrationError":0.4912,"resolvedBets":992,"overconfidenceBias":0.4912,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":1.1,"luck":26,"edge":-79.92},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.2853,"resolution":0,"uncertainty":0},"brierSkillScore":-0.1442,"logLoss":0.8163,"logLossSkill":-102.2381,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":0,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":0}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0x14e72e19ea2f6e2be41504dd3268184ebe5fa32c","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1779829102,"firstTxDate":"2026-05-26","walletAgeDays":38,"totalTransactions":2000,"uniqueCounterparties":0,"inboundTxCount":0,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":39,"totalUsdcIn":12390.52,"totalUsdcOut":12390.52,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":2,"contractInteractions":0,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0,"medianTxIntervalSec":0,"burstTxCount":0,"provenanceScore":53,"provenanceGrade":"C","flags":["Limited counterparties: only 0 unique addresses","No contract interactions despite activity — possible EOA-only transfers"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2000 txs","Significant USDC flow: $24,781","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-07-04T01:47:20.711Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":656668.89,"pnlVerified":false},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0x14e72e19ea2f6e2be41504dd3268184ebe5fa32c","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":8490.52,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":24,"largestWithdrawal":882.75,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-05-27","fetchedAt":"2026-07-04T01:48:54.907Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 38 days, 2000 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $8,491 in / $0 out across 24 withdrawal tx since 2026-05-27.","3100 total trades across 240 markets.","992 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 49.1% — needs improvement.","Skill: 1/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 26/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -14.4% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.2853 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.","Log loss: 0.8163 (skill: -10223.8% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events."],"flags":["Overconfidence bias: 0.491","Brier Skill Score: -14.4% — performing worse than naive baseline","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Net loss: -$656669 total PnL","Low win rate: 0%","PnL divergence: $656669 gap between API and on-chain USDC flows"],"greenFlags":["Strong live edge: 8 open positions trending profitable","Well-diversified: 240 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns"],"scoredAt":"2026-07-04T01:48:55.572Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance.","antiSybil":{"eligibleForGrade":true,"ageFactor":0.06570506699203997,"reason":"Wallet age 37d → difficulty factor 0.07","ageDaysUsed":37}}