{"wallet":"0x167a59f38ffe5eb3b116c793fae3ae295070d542","displayName":"tnotmotnotgwcrf","pseudonym":"Studious-Reality","raw":{"totalTrades":3100,"totalVolume":35279.5,"totalPnl":-25565.16,"realizedPnl":0,"unrealizedPnl":-25565.16,"winRate":0,"openPositions":2,"resolvedBets":148,"uniqueMarkets":131},"calibration":0,"profitability":0,"consistency":100,"discipline":75,"sampleSize":88,"liveEdge":0,"trustScore":26,"trustGrade":"F","trustTier":"DANGER","confidence":{"level":"medium","margin":8,"resolvedBets":148,"description":"F/26 [CI95: F→F, 23-29] (148 resolved bets)","ci95":{"scoreLow":23,"scoreHigh":29,"gradeLow":"F","gradeHigh":"F","iterations":1000,"insufficientData":false}},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.06874615384615385,"totalBets":26,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.06874615384615385,"error":0.06874615384615385},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.10476666666666663,"totalBets":6,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.10476666666666663,"error":0.10476666666666663},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.2218,"totalBets":2,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.2218,"error":0.2218},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.879809090909091,"totalBets":22,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.879809090909091,"error":0.879809090909091},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.9347130434782605,"totalBets":92,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.9347130434782605,"error":0.9347130434782605}],"brierScore":0.6607,"calibrationError":0.7311,"resolvedBets":148,"overconfidenceBias":0.7311,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":0,"luck":37.1,"edge":-246.45},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.6601,"resolution":0,"uncertainty":0},"brierSkillScore":-1.6426,"logLoss":2.0946,"logLossSkill":-263.8921,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":0,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":0}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0x167a59f38ffe5eb3b116c793fae3ae295070d542","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1773239527,"firstTxDate":"2026-03-11","walletAgeDays":56,"totalTransactions":2995,"uniqueCounterparties":30,"inboundTxCount":995,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":1997,"totalUsdcIn":7756.45,"totalUsdcOut":4929.97,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":5,"contractInteractions":995,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0.04,"medianTxIntervalSec":300,"burstTxCount":4,"provenanceScore":68,"provenanceGrade":"B","flags":["Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2995 txs","Significant USDC flow: $12,686","Human-like transaction patterns","Diverse trading network: 30 counterparties"],"fetchedAt":"2026-05-06T23:23:57.831Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":28391.64,"pnlVerified":false},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0x167a59f38ffe5eb3b116c793fae3ae295070d542","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":5727.17,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":67,"largestWithdrawal":926.67,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-04-06","fetchedAt":"2026-05-06T23:34:55.333Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 56 days, 2995 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $5,727 in / $0 out across 67 withdrawal tx since 2026-04-06.","3100 total trades across 131 markets.","148 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 73.1% — needs improvement.","Skill: 0/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 37/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -164.3% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.6601 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.","Log loss: 2.0946 (skill: -26389.2% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events."],"flags":["Weak Brier score: 0.6607","Overconfidence bias: 0.731","Brier Skill Score: -164.3% — performing worse than naive baseline","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address","Net loss: -$25565 total PnL","Low win rate: 0%","PnL divergence: $28392 gap between API and on-chain USDC flows"],"greenFlags":["Well-diversified: 131 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns","On-chain: diverse counterparty network"],"scoredAt":"2026-05-06T23:34:55.604Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance.","antiSybil":{"eligibleForGrade":true,"ageFactor":0,"reason":"Wallet age 30d → difficulty factor 0.00","ageDaysUsed":30}}