{"wallet":"0x1818b08c5eab1f8fb6d43e383fe0ad243e291a1a","displayName":"rewfxd","pseudonym":"Quarrelsome-Stereo","raw":{"totalTrades":1518,"totalVolume":3995.14,"totalPnl":-106.94,"realizedPnl":0,"unrealizedPnl":-106.94,"winRate":0,"openPositions":0,"resolvedBets":262,"uniqueMarkets":285},"calibration":8,"profitability":35,"consistency":64,"discipline":50,"sampleSize":100,"liveEdge":40,"trustScore":37,"trustGrade":"D","trustTier":"RISKY","confidence":{"level":"high","margin":3,"resolvedBets":262,"description":"D/37 ± 3 (high confidence, 262 resolved bets)"},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.010000000000000009,"totalBets":1,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.010000000000000009,"error":0.010000000000000009},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.13837402279756053,"totalBets":6,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.13837402279756053,"error":0.13837402279756053},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.2633258142598687,"totalBets":9,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.2633258142598687,"error":0.2633258142598687},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.3523065868945698,"totalBets":17,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.3523065868945698,"error":0.3523065868945698},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.4569527865386387,"totalBets":36,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.4569527865386387,"error":0.4569527865386387},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5547749965440365,"totalBets":38,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.5547749965440365,"error":0.5547749965440365},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6524863206234548,"totalBets":54,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.6524863206234548,"error":0.6524863206234548},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.7435893809131152,"totalBets":49,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.7435893809131152,"error":0.7435893809131152},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8474529535653742,"totalBets":34,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.8474529535653742,"error":0.8474529535653742},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.9416725556762664,"totalBets":18,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.9416725556762664,"error":0.9416725556762664}],"brierScore":0.4302,"calibrationError":0.6266,"resolvedBets":262,"overconfidenceBias":0.6266,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":0,"luck":15.6,"edge":-46.49},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.4295,"resolution":0,"uncertainty":0},"brierSkillScore":-0.7209,"logLoss":1.1668,"logLossSkill":-146.5619,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":1.8,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":2}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0x1818b08c5eab1f8fb6d43e383fe0ad243e291a1a","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1776304150,"firstTxDate":"2026-04-16","walletAgeDays":4,"totalTransactions":2041,"uniqueCounterparties":2,"inboundTxCount":41,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":1999,"totalUsdcIn":4756.65,"totalUsdcOut":4244.98,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":3,"contractInteractions":41,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":80,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0.95,"medianTxIntervalSec":2758,"burstTxCount":0,"provenanceScore":38,"provenanceGrade":"D","flags":["Very new wallet: 4 days old — possible sybil","Limited counterparties: only 2 unique addresses","Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction","Wash trading signal: 95% of txs with single counterparty"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2041 txs","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T03:17:10.697Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":618.61,"pnlVerified":true},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0x1818b08c5eab1f8fb6d43e383fe0ad243e291a1a","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":2929.93,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":116,"largestWithdrawal":135.15,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-04-17","fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T03:17:08.234Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 4 days, 2041 txs, provenance grade D. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 80/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $2,930 in / $0 out across 116 withdrawal tx since 2026-04-17.","1518 total trades across 285 markets.","262 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 62.7% — needs improvement.","Skill: 0/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 16/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -72.1% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.4295 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.","Log loss: 1.1668 (skill: -14656.2% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.","Timeliness: avg entry 1.8 days before resolution, 0% early mover."],"flags":["Weak Brier score: 0.4302","Overconfidence bias: 0.627","Brier Skill Score: -72.1% — performing worse than naive baseline","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address","Net loss: -$107 total PnL","Low win rate: 0%","Concentrated portfolio: 100% in single market","On-chain: wallet only 4 days old on Polygon","On-chain: wash trading signal — 95% of txs with single counterparty"],"greenFlags":["Well-diversified: 285 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-20T03:17:15.174Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance.","cached":true,"cachedAt":1776655035174}