{"wallet":"0x19cd345dcd11a9f1aedb29fc45577d8d57a0af9a","displayName":"aabbaabb","pseudonym":"Slim-Pond","raw":{"totalTrades":3100,"totalVolume":20435.8,"totalPnl":4.07,"realizedPnl":37.29,"unrealizedPnl":-33.22,"winRate":0.011,"openPositions":16,"resolvedBets":185,"uniqueMarkets":228},"calibration":0,"profitability":40,"consistency":53,"discipline":94,"sampleSize":88,"liveEdge":53,"trustScore":40,"trustGrade":"D","trustTier":"RISKY","confidence":{"level":"medium","margin":8,"resolvedBets":185,"description":"D/40 [CI95: D→D, 39-41] (185 resolved bets)","ci95":{"scoreLow":39,"scoreHigh":41,"gradeLow":"D","gradeHigh":"D","iterations":1000,"insufficientData":false}},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.14823540571271157,"totalBets":13,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.14823540571271157,"error":0.14823540571271157},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.2582053266091787,"totalBets":10,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.2582053266091787,"error":0.2582053266091787},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.3427843101367444,"totalBets":18,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.3427843101367444,"error":0.3427843101367444},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.4532375736291021,"totalBets":43,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.4532375736291021,"error":0.4532375736291021},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5404656268429217,"totalBets":36,"correctBets":2,"actualRate":0.05555555555555555,"expectedRate":0.5404656268429217,"error":0.4849100712873661},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6544067153885257,"totalBets":24,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.6544067153885257,"error":0.6544067153885257},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.7454402264501657,"totalBets":27,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.7454402264501657,"error":0.7454402264501657},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8267890541005123,"totalBets":11,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.8267890541005123,"error":0.8267890541005123},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.923351281881231,"totalBets":3,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.923351281881231,"error":0.923351281881231}],"brierScore":0.3123,"calibrationError":0.5153,"resolvedBets":185,"overconfidenceBias":0.5153,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":0.1,"luck":23.1,"edge":-58.14},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.3012,"resolution":0.0005,"uncertainty":0.0107},"brierSkillScore":-28.2042,"logLoss":0.8458,"logLossSkill":-13.1694,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":0.5,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":0}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0x19cd345dcd11a9f1aedb29fc45577d8d57a0af9a","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1768477890,"firstTxDate":"2026-01-15","walletAgeDays":105,"totalTransactions":2899,"uniqueCounterparties":15,"inboundTxCount":899,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":1999,"totalUsdcIn":3419.63,"totalUsdcOut":3072.87,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":3,"contractInteractions":899,"botScore":30,"washTradingScore":20,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0.98,"medianTxIntervalSec":14,"burstTxCount":17,"provenanceScore":63,"provenanceGrade":"B","flags":["Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction","Possible automated trading: 17 burst txs"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2899 txs"],"fetchedAt":"2026-05-01T03:27:56.441Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":342.69,"pnlVerified":true},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0x19cd345dcd11a9f1aedb29fc45577d8d57a0af9a","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":201.74,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":14,"largestWithdrawal":45,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-02-03","fetchedAt":"2026-05-01T03:31:00.327Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 105 days, 2899 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 30/100, wash trading score: 20/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $202 in / $0 out across 14 withdrawal tx since 2026-02-03.","3100 total trades across 228 markets.","185 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 51.5% — needs improvement.","Skill: 0/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 23/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -2820.4% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.3012 RES=0.0005 UNC=0.0107.","Log loss: 0.8458 (skill: -1316.9% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events."],"flags":["Overconfidence bias: 0.515","Brier Skill Score: -2820.4% — performing worse than naive baseline","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address","Low win rate: 1%","On-chain: possible automated trading (bot score: 30)"],"greenFlags":["Net profitable: +$4 total PnL","Well-diversified: 228 unique markets"],"scoredAt":"2026-05-01T03:31:00.711Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance.","antiSybil":{"eligibleForGrade":true,"ageFactor":0.34765515760753507,"reason":"Wallet age 91d → difficulty factor 0.35","ageDaysUsed":91}}