{"wallet":"0x1bbd4be39595b8a2ba03895f38c3f471b4673bed","displayName":"syronanno","pseudonym":"Wild-Muscatel","raw":{"totalTrades":3100,"totalVolume":6223.79,"totalPnl":-14780.25,"realizedPnl":-163.83,"unrealizedPnl":-14616.42,"winRate":0.002,"openPositions":0,"resolvedBets":1000,"uniqueMarkets":329},"calibration":0,"profitability":0,"consistency":5,"discipline":50,"sampleSize":100,"liveEdge":40,"trustScore":24,"trustGrade":"F","trustTier":"DANGER","confidence":{"level":"high","margin":3,"resolvedBets":1000,"description":"F/24 [CI95: F→F, 23-25] (1000 resolved bets)","ci95":{"scoreLow":23,"scoreHigh":25,"gradeLow":"INS","gradeHigh":"INS","iterations":1000,"insufficientData":true}},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.057679999999999995,"totalBets":20,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.057679999999999995,"error":0.057679999999999995},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.16263090909090902,"totalBets":110,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.16263090909090902,"error":0.16263090909090902},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.2490570175438598,"totalBets":228,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.2490570175438598,"error":0.2490570175438598},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.3436272727272727,"totalBets":88,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.3436272727272727,"error":0.3436272727272727},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.43828571428571433,"totalBets":56,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.43828571428571433,"error":0.43828571428571433},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.55025,"totalBets":52,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.55025,"error":0.55025},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6539067796610172,"totalBets":118,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.6539067796610172,"error":0.6539067796610172},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.7522173469387754,"totalBets":196,"correctBets":2,"actualRate":0.01020408163265306,"expectedRate":0.7522173469387754,"error":0.7420132653061223},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8369421052631576,"totalBets":114,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.8369421052631576,"error":0.8369421052631576},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.9461888888888887,"totalBets":18,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.9461888888888887,"error":0.9461888888888887}],"brierScore":0.311,"calibrationError":0.4943,"resolvedBets":1000,"overconfidenceBias":0.4943,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":0.7,"luck":26.7,"edge":-129.47},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.3084,"resolution":0,"uncertainty":0.002},"brierSkillScore":-154.8075,"logLoss":0.8603,"logLossSkill":-58.6321,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":0,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":0}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0x1bbd4be39595b8a2ba03895f38c3f471b4673bed","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1778703561,"firstTxDate":"2026-05-13","walletAgeDays":33,"totalTransactions":2000,"uniqueCounterparties":0,"inboundTxCount":0,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":0,"totalUsdcIn":0,"totalUsdcOut":0,"protocolsUsed":[],"uniqueContractsInteracted":1,"contractInteractions":0,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0,"medianTxIntervalSec":0,"burstTxCount":0,"provenanceScore":35,"provenanceGrade":"D","flags":["Limited counterparties: only 0 unique addresses","No contract interactions despite activity — possible EOA-only transfers"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2000 txs","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-06-16T04:49:23.047Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":null,"pnlVerified":false},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0x1bbd4be39595b8a2ba03895f38c3f471b4673bed","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":0,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":0,"largestWithdrawal":0,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"never","fetchedAt":"2026-06-16T04:50:45.864Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 33 days, 2000 txs, provenance grade D. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $0 in / $0 out across 0 withdrawal tx since never.","3100 total trades across 329 markets.","1000 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 49.4% — needs improvement.","Skill: 1/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 27/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -15480.8% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.3084 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0020.","Log loss: 0.8603 (skill: -5863.2% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events."],"flags":["Overconfidence bias: 0.494","Brier Skill Score: -15480.8% — performing worse than naive baseline","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Net loss: -$14780 total PnL","Low win rate: 0%","Concentrated portfolio: 100% in single market","young_wallet: Wallet is only 0 days old — force-INS (threshold 30d)"],"greenFlags":["Well-diversified: 329 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns"],"scoredAt":"2026-06-16T04:50:47.599Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance.","antiSybil":{"eligibleForGrade":false,"ageFactor":0,"reason":"Wallet is only 0 days old — force-INS (threshold 30d)","ageDaysUsed":0}}