{"wallet":"0x1c530661960c3ef922b3dd223b3a4bbb19a2decf","displayName":"yjhgaz","pseudonym":"Severe-Pinstripe","raw":{"totalTrades":1544,"totalVolume":4174.9,"totalPnl":244.47,"realizedPnl":0,"unrealizedPnl":244.47,"winRate":0,"openPositions":4,"resolvedBets":253,"uniqueMarkets":285},"calibration":8,"profitability":52,"consistency":67,"discipline":85,"sampleSize":100,"liveEdge":100,"trustScore":56,"trustGrade":"C","trustTier":"DEVELOPING","confidence":{"level":"high","margin":3,"resolvedBets":253,"description":"C/56 ± 3 (high confidence, 253 resolved bets)"},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.010000000000000009,"totalBets":1,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.010000000000000009,"error":0.010000000000000009},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.13837487275839103,"totalBets":6,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.13837487275839103,"error":0.13837487275839103},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.25533023583513664,"totalBets":9,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.25533023583513664,"error":0.25533023583513664},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.3498456237888389,"totalBets":14,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.3498456237888389,"error":0.3498456237888389},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.4561060485396149,"totalBets":30,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.4561060485396149,"error":0.4561060485396149},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5557015696527149,"totalBets":43,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.5557015696527149,"error":0.5557015696527149},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6444478609934731,"totalBets":49,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.6444478609934731,"error":0.6444478609934731},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.7401092640306256,"totalBets":51,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.7401092640306256,"error":0.7401092640306256},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8482316071145105,"totalBets":34,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.8482316071145105,"error":0.8482316071145105},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.9440912245707377,"totalBets":16,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.9440912245707377,"error":0.9440912245707377}],"brierScore":0.4313,"calibrationError":0.628,"resolvedBets":253,"overconfidenceBias":0.628,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":0,"luck":15.7,"edge":-46.99},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.4306,"resolution":0,"uncertainty":0},"brierSkillScore":-0.7254,"logLoss":1.1657,"logLossSkill":-146.4244,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":1.8,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":2}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0x1c530661960c3ef922b3dd223b3a4bbb19a2decf","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1776304322,"firstTxDate":"2026-04-16","walletAgeDays":4,"totalTransactions":2040,"uniqueCounterparties":2,"inboundTxCount":40,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":1999,"totalUsdcIn":4708.92,"totalUsdcOut":4225.87,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":3,"contractInteractions":40,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":80,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0.98,"medianTxIntervalSec":2772,"burstTxCount":0,"provenanceScore":38,"provenanceGrade":"D","flags":["Very new wallet: 4 days old — possible sybil","Limited counterparties: only 2 unique addresses","Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction","Wash trading signal: 98% of txs with single counterparty"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2040 txs","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T03:17:08.026Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":238.58,"pnlVerified":true},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0x1c530661960c3ef922b3dd223b3a4bbb19a2decf","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":2826.12,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":109,"largestWithdrawal":135.65,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-04-17","fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T03:17:07.464Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 4 days, 2040 txs, provenance grade D. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 80/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $2,826 in / $0 out across 109 withdrawal tx since 2026-04-17.","1544 total trades across 285 markets.","253 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 62.8% — needs improvement.","Skill: 0/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 16/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -72.5% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.4306 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.","Log loss: 1.1657 (skill: -14642.4% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.","Timeliness: avg entry 1.8 days before resolution, 0% early mover."],"flags":["Weak Brier score: 0.4313","Overconfidence bias: 0.628","Brier Skill Score: -72.5% — performing worse than naive baseline","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address","Low win rate: 0%","On-chain: wallet only 4 days old on Polygon","On-chain: wash trading signal — 98% of txs with single counterparty"],"greenFlags":["Strong live edge: 4 open positions trending profitable","Net profitable: +$244 total PnL","Well-diversified: 285 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-20T03:17:10.068Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance."}