{"wallet":"0x1e82568a501e44317c4806297a4691ec743c7c1c","displayName":"jerbl2720","pseudonym":"Apprehensive-Clasp","raw":{"totalTrades":3100,"totalVolume":13209.34,"totalPnl":0,"realizedPnl":0,"unrealizedPnl":0,"winRate":0,"openPositions":0,"resolvedBets":127,"uniqueMarkets":127},"calibration":35,"profitability":40,"consistency":77,"discipline":50,"sampleSize":88,"liveEdge":40,"trustScore":45,"trustGrade":"D","trustTier":"RISKY","confidence":{"level":"medium","margin":8,"resolvedBets":127,"description":"D/45 [CI95: D→D, 44-46] (127 resolved bets)","ci95":{"scoreLow":44,"scoreHigh":46,"gradeLow":"D","gradeHigh":"D","iterations":1000,"insufficientData":false}},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.08999999999999997,"totalBets":1,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.08999999999999997,"error":0.08999999999999997},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.16500000000000004,"totalBets":3,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.16500000000000004,"error":0.16500000000000004},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.2602422222222222,"totalBets":3,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.2602422222222222,"error":0.2602422222222222},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.3756935474425841,"totalBets":18,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.3756935474425841,"error":0.3756935474425841},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.46482886236085935,"totalBets":54,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.46482886236085935,"error":0.46482886236085935},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5371293224820072,"totalBets":31,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.5371293224820072,"error":0.5371293224820072},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6429448450794599,"totalBets":15,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.6429448450794599,"error":0.6429448450794599},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.7156621764085747,"totalBets":2,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.7156621764085747,"error":0.7156621764085747}],"brierScore":0.2421,"calibrationError":0.48,"resolvedBets":127,"overconfidenceBias":0.48,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":2.4,"luck":25.7,"edge":-94.17},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.2415,"resolution":0,"uncertainty":0},"brierSkillScore":0.0317,"logLoss":0.6755,"logLossSkill":-84.4284,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":0.3,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":0}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0x1e82568a501e44317c4806297a4691ec743c7c1c","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1770923591,"firstTxDate":"2026-02-12","walletAgeDays":85,"totalTransactions":2959,"uniqueCounterparties":23,"inboundTxCount":959,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":2000,"totalUsdcIn":10257.32,"totalUsdcOut":9888.81,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":2,"contractInteractions":959,"botScore":50,"washTradingScore":20,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0.95,"medianTxIntervalSec":8,"burstTxCount":17,"provenanceScore":63,"provenanceGrade":"B","flags":["Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction","Possible automated trading: 17 burst txs"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2959 txs","Significant USDC flow: $20,146"],"fetchedAt":"2026-05-09T03:45:00.424Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":null,"pnlVerified":false},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0x1e82568a501e44317c4806297a4691ec743c7c1c","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":6057.3,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":212,"largestWithdrawal":1001.44,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-02-13","fetchedAt":"2026-05-09T03:44:59.936Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 85 days, 2959 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 50/100, wash trading score: 20/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $6,057 in / $0 out across 212 withdrawal tx since 2026-02-13.","3100 total trades across 127 markets.","127 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 48.0% — needs improvement.","Skill: 2/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 26/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: 3.2% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.2415 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.","Log loss: 0.6755 (skill: -8442.8% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events."],"flags":["Overconfidence bias: 0.480","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address","Low win rate: 0%","Concentrated portfolio: 100% in single market","On-chain: possible automated trading (bot score: 50)","On-chain coverage gap: 212 Polymarket USDC withdrawals observed, but only 127 resolved bets recovered from data-api + CLOB. Grade based on a subset of the wallet's forecasting history."],"greenFlags":["Well-diversified: 127 unique markets"],"scoredAt":"2026-05-09T03:45:07.013Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance.","antiSybil":{"eligibleForGrade":true,"ageFactor":0.3188258013369046,"reason":"Wallet age 83d → difficulty factor 0.32","ageDaysUsed":83}}