{"wallet":"0x1f19c48aee80ec95396d91f0d21ac249b8a7f57a","displayName":"godspeed11","pseudonym":"Unselfish-Condominium","raw":{"totalTrades":3100,"totalVolume":8085.21,"totalPnl":15.08,"realizedPnl":0,"unrealizedPnl":15.08,"winRate":0,"openPositions":8,"resolvedBets":64,"uniqueMarkets":64},"calibration":51,"profitability":40,"consistency":89,"discipline":87,"sampleSize":75,"liveEdge":34,"trustScore":52,"trustGrade":"C","trustTier":"DEVELOPING","confidence":{"level":"medium","margin":8,"resolvedBets":64,"description":"C/52 [CI95: C→C, 51-53] (64 resolved bets)","ci95":{"scoreLow":51,"scoreHigh":53,"gradeLow":"INS","gradeHigh":"INS","iterations":1000,"insufficientData":true}},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.1541,"totalBets":1,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.1541,"error":0.1541},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.34471610584217016,"totalBets":6,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.34471610584217016,"error":0.34471610584217016},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.45704473664504486,"totalBets":50,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.45704473664504486,"error":0.45704473664504486},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.511971457918914,"totalBets":6,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.511971457918914,"error":0.511971457918914},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.741,"totalBets":1,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.741,"error":0.741}],"brierScore":0.2084,"calibrationError":0.4514,"resolvedBets":64,"overconfidenceBias":0.4514,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":5.8,"luck":10.7,"edge":-115.47},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.2079,"resolution":0,"uncertainty":0},"brierSkillScore":0.1663,"logLoss":0.6087,"logLossSkill":-75.9738,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":0.1,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":0}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0x1f19c48aee80ec95396d91f0d21ac249b8a7f57a","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1774899867,"firstTxDate":"2026-03-30","walletAgeDays":23,"totalTransactions":2999,"uniqueCounterparties":5,"inboundTxCount":999,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":1999,"totalUsdcIn":14020.64,"totalUsdcOut":10968.44,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":3,"contractInteractions":999,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":50,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0.99,"medianTxIntervalSec":872,"burstTxCount":0,"provenanceScore":53,"provenanceGrade":"C","flags":["Young wallet: only 23 days old","Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction","Counterparty concentration: 99% with top address"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2999 txs","Significant USDC flow: $24,989","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-23T07:55:02.229Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":3037.12,"pnlVerified":false},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0x1f19c48aee80ec95396d91f0d21ac249b8a7f57a","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":11103.34,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":91,"largestWithdrawal":436.14,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-03-30","fetchedAt":"2026-04-23T07:56:42.417Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 23 days, 2999 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 50/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $11,103 in / $0 out across 91 withdrawal tx since 2026-03-30.","3100 total trades across 64 markets.","64 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 45.1% — needs improvement.","Skill: 6/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 11/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: 16.6% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.2079 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.","Log loss: 0.6087 (skill: -7597.4% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events."],"flags":["Overconfidence bias: 0.451","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address","Low win rate: 0%","PnL divergence: $3037 gap between API and on-chain USDC flows","young_wallet: Wallet is only 22 days old — force-INS (threshold 30d)"],"greenFlags":["Brier Skill Score: 16.6% better than naive baseline","Net profitable: +$15 total PnL","Well-diversified: 64 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns","On-chain: $11,103 total USDC.e received from Polymarket contracts across 91 tx (Polygon)"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-23T07:56:42.708Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance.","antiSybil":{"eligibleForGrade":false,"ageFactor":0,"reason":"Wallet is only 22 days old — force-INS (threshold 30d)","ageDaysUsed":22}}