{"wallet":"0x1f2dd6d473f3e824cd2f8a89d9c69fb96f6ad0cf","displayName":"Fredi9999","pseudonym":"Whopping-Greenhouse","raw":{"totalTrades":1250,"totalVolume":17830372.17,"totalPnl":0,"realizedPnl":0,"unrealizedPnl":0,"winRate":0.6,"openPositions":0,"resolvedBets":40,"uniqueMarkets":40},"calibration":42,"profitability":40,"consistency":23,"discipline":50,"sampleSize":60,"liveEdge":40,"trustScore":41,"trustGrade":"D","trustTier":"RISKY","confidence":{"level":"low","margin":15,"resolvedBets":40,"description":"D/41 [CI95: D→D, 37-45] (40 resolved bets)","ci95":{"scoreLow":37,"scoreHigh":45,"gradeLow":"D","gradeHigh":"D","iterations":1000,"insufficientData":false}},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.017888888888888902,"totalBets":9,"correctBets":4,"actualRate":0.4444444444444444,"expectedRate":0.017888888888888902,"error":0.4265555555555555},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.17809937627023617,"totalBets":1,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.17809937627023617,"error":0.17809937627023617},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.27738241809316844,"totalBets":4,"correctBets":3,"actualRate":0.75,"expectedRate":0.27738241809316844,"error":0.47261758190683156},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.3396613453949284,"totalBets":2,"correctBets":1,"actualRate":0.5,"expectedRate":0.3396613453949284,"error":0.16033865460507157},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.47101910592834095,"totalBets":5,"correctBets":4,"actualRate":0.8,"expectedRate":0.47101910592834095,"error":0.3289808940716591},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5326601586819002,"totalBets":8,"correctBets":5,"actualRate":0.625,"expectedRate":0.5326601586819002,"error":0.0923398413180998},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6431471011861206,"totalBets":4,"correctBets":1,"actualRate":0.25,"expectedRate":0.6431471011861206,"error":0.3931471011861206},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.7157345999640321,"totalBets":1,"correctBets":1,"actualRate":1,"expectedRate":0.7157345999640321,"error":0.2842654000359679},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8459783673100743,"totalBets":4,"correctBets":3,"actualRate":0.75,"expectedRate":0.8459783673100743,"error":0.09597836731007425},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.9565892560421145,"totalBets":2,"correctBets":2,"actualRate":1,"expectedRate":0.9565892560421145,"error":0.04341074395788547}],"brierScore":0.2906,"calibrationError":0.2735,"resolvedBets":40,"overconfidenceBias":-0.1668,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":35,"luck":100,"edge":55.85},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.0991,"resolution":0.0488,"uncertainty":0.24},"brierSkillScore":-0.2107,"logLoss":0.9826,"logLossSkill":-0.46,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":607.2,"earlyMoverPct":1,"timelinessScore":100}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0x1f2dd6d473f3e824cd2f8a89d9c69fb96f6ad0cf","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1722683217,"firstTxDate":"2024-08-03","walletAgeDays":627,"totalTransactions":2000,"uniqueCounterparties":0,"inboundTxCount":0,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":1997,"totalUsdcIn":6668910.53,"totalUsdcOut":5711446.59,"protocolsUsed":["USDC","USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":5,"contractInteractions":0,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0,"medianTxIntervalSec":0,"burstTxCount":0,"provenanceScore":71,"provenanceGrade":"B","flags":["Limited counterparties: only 0 unique addresses","No contract interactions despite activity — possible EOA-only transfers"],"greenFlags":["Wallet age: 627 days (mature)","Heavy on-chain activity: 2000 txs","Significant USDC flow: $12,380,357","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-23T10:17:06.315Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":null,"pnlVerified":false},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0x1f2dd6d473f3e824cd2f8a89d9c69fb96f6ad0cf","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":0,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":0,"largestWithdrawal":0,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"never","fetchedAt":"2026-04-23T10:17:06.820Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 627 days, 2000 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $0 in / $0 out across 0 withdrawal tx since never.","1250 total trades across 40 markets.","40 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 27.4% — needs improvement.","Skill: 35/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 100/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -21.1% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.0991 RES=0.0488 UNC=0.2400.","Log loss: 0.9826 (skill: -46.0% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.","Timeliness: avg entry 607.2 days before resolution, 100% early mover."],"flags":["High luck component: 100/100 — returns may not persist","Brier Skill Score: -21.1% — performing worse than naive baseline","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Concentrated portfolio: 100% in single market"],"greenFlags":["Conservative (underconfident) bias","Early mover: avg 607 days before resolution","Well-diversified: 40 unique markets","On-chain: 627-day wallet history on Polygon","On-chain: human-like trading patterns"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-23T10:17:07.898Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance.","antiSybil":{"eligibleForGrade":true,"ageFactor":0.805994807178662,"reason":"Wallet age 393d → difficulty factor 0.81","ageDaysUsed":393},"cached":true,"cachedAt":1776939428230}