{"wallet":"0x1fc82e096da1f53ee32ed407c264fb76ae2305cf","displayName":"0xb434","pseudonym":"Misguided-Hunt-Campus","raw":{"totalTrades":3100,"totalVolume":110434.6,"totalPnl":34.04,"realizedPnl":0,"unrealizedPnl":34.04,"winRate":0,"openPositions":4,"resolvedBets":192,"uniqueMarkets":192},"calibration":28,"profitability":40,"consistency":53,"discipline":83,"sampleSize":88,"liveEdge":93,"trustScore":59,"trustGrade":"C","trustTier":"DEVELOPING","confidence":{"level":"medium","margin":8,"resolvedBets":192,"description":"C/59 [CI95: C→C, 58-60] (192 resolved bets)","ci95":{"scoreLow":58,"scoreHigh":60,"gradeLow":"INS","gradeHigh":"INS","iterations":1000,"insufficientData":true}},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.06199967327014836,"totalBets":6,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.06199967327014836,"error":0.06199967327014836},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.15691625846192514,"totalBets":9,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.15691625846192514,"error":0.15691625846192514},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.2557691398821014,"totalBets":11,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.2557691398821014,"error":0.2557691398821014},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.3610430751035764,"totalBets":28,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.3610430751035764,"error":0.3610430751035764},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.46002833053680786,"totalBets":37,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.46002833053680786,"error":0.46002833053680786},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5399589069124171,"totalBets":51,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.5399589069124171,"error":0.5399589069124171},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6449332729997497,"totalBets":31,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.6449332729997497,"error":0.6449332729997497},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.7400078962668497,"totalBets":10,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.7400078962668497,"error":0.7400078962668497},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8413778824514292,"totalBets":6,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.8413778824514292,"error":0.8413778824514292},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.9270108325249385,"totalBets":3,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.9270108325249385,"error":0.9270108325249385}],"brierScore":0.2742,"calibrationError":0.4921,"resolvedBets":192,"overconfidenceBias":0.4921,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":0.9,"luck":27.5,"edge":-82.53},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.2735,"resolution":0,"uncertainty":0},"brierSkillScore":-0.0969,"logLoss":0.7559,"logLossSkill":-94.5947,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":0.6,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":1}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0x1fc82e096da1f53ee32ed407c264fb76ae2305cf","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1775160083,"firstTxDate":"2026-04-02","walletAgeDays":22,"totalTransactions":2000,"uniqueCounterparties":0,"inboundTxCount":0,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":1999,"totalUsdcIn":37848.03,"totalUsdcOut":19088.12,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":2,"contractInteractions":0,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0,"medianTxIntervalSec":0,"burstTxCount":0,"provenanceScore":48,"provenanceGrade":"C","flags":["Young wallet: only 22 days old","Limited counterparties: only 0 unique addresses","No contract interactions despite activity — possible EOA-only transfers"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2000 txs","Significant USDC flow: $56,936","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-25T10:45:22.736Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":18725.87,"pnlVerified":true},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0x1fc82e096da1f53ee32ed407c264fb76ae2305cf","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":20988.03,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":66,"largestWithdrawal":3156.7,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-04-02","fetchedAt":"2026-04-25T10:47:56.027Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 22 days, 2000 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $20,988 in / $0 out across 66 withdrawal tx since 2026-04-02.","3100 total trades across 192 markets.","192 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 49.2% — needs improvement.","Skill: 1/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 28/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -9.7% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.2735 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.","Log loss: 0.7559 (skill: -9459.5% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.","Timeliness: avg entry 0.6 days before resolution, 0% early mover."],"flags":["Overconfidence bias: 0.492","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Low win rate: 0%","young_wallet: Wallet is only 22 days old — force-INS (threshold 30d)"],"greenFlags":["Strong live edge: 4 open positions trending profitable","Net profitable: +$34 total PnL","Well-diversified: 192 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns","On-chain: $20,988 total USDC.e received from Polymarket contracts across 66 tx (Polygon)"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-25T10:47:56.218Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance.","antiSybil":{"eligibleForGrade":false,"ageFactor":0,"reason":"Wallet is only 22 days old — force-INS (threshold 30d)","ageDaysUsed":22}}