{"wallet":"0x2005d16a84ceefa912d4e380cd32e7ff827875ea","displayName":"RN1","pseudonym":"Scary-Edible","raw":{"totalTrades":3100,"totalVolume":835598.82,"totalPnl":-722344.06,"realizedPnl":663260.58,"unrealizedPnl":-1385604.64,"winRate":0.05,"openPositions":34,"resolvedBets":966,"uniqueMarkets":857},"calibration":9,"profitability":0,"consistency":75,"discipline":96,"sampleSize":100,"liveEdge":42,"trustScore":41,"trustGrade":"D","trustTier":"RISKY","confidence":{"level":"high","margin":3,"resolvedBets":966,"description":"D/41 ± 3 (high confidence, 966 resolved bets)"},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.04718529411764703,"totalBets":136,"correctBets":2,"actualRate":0.014705882352941176,"expectedRate":0.04718529411764703,"error":0.032479411764705854},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.14906491228070176,"totalBets":114,"correctBets":8,"actualRate":0.07017543859649122,"expectedRate":0.14906491228070176,"error":0.07888947368421054},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.24805957446808513,"totalBets":94,"correctBets":4,"actualRate":0.0425531914893617,"expectedRate":0.24805957446808513,"error":0.20550638297872342},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.35443043478260866,"totalBets":92,"correctBets":14,"actualRate":0.15217391304347827,"expectedRate":0.35443043478260866,"error":0.2022565217391304},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.45238965517241386,"totalBets":116,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.45238965517241386,"error":0.45238965517241386},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5446859649122806,"totalBets":114,"correctBets":8,"actualRate":0.07017543859649122,"expectedRate":0.5446859649122806,"error":0.4745105263157894},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6461803278688523,"totalBets":122,"correctBets":6,"actualRate":0.04918032786885246,"expectedRate":0.6461803278688523,"error":0.5969999999999998},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.7551731707317071,"totalBets":82,"correctBets":4,"actualRate":0.04878048780487805,"expectedRate":0.7551731707317071,"error":0.706392682926829},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8462303030303028,"totalBets":66,"correctBets":2,"actualRate":0.030303030303030304,"expectedRate":0.8462303030303028,"error":0.8159272727272725},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.9574799999999999,"totalBets":30,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.9574799999999999,"error":0.9574799999999999}],"brierScore":0.2669,"calibrationError":0.3843,"resolvedBets":966,"overconfidenceBias":0.3843,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":14.2,"luck":100,"edge":-45.43},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.2214,"resolution":0.0017,"uncertainty":0.0472},"brierSkillScore":-4.6531,"logLoss":0.7662,"logLossSkill":-2.8776,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":0,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":0}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0x2005d16a84ceefa912d4e380cd32e7ff827875ea","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1752014409,"firstTxDate":"2025-07-08","walletAgeDays":286,"totalTransactions":2000,"uniqueCounterparties":0,"inboundTxCount":0,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":1998,"totalUsdcIn":18645.88,"totalUsdcOut":16964.35,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":3,"contractInteractions":0,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0,"medianTxIntervalSec":0,"burstTxCount":0,"provenanceScore":63,"provenanceGrade":"B","flags":["Limited counterparties: only 0 unique addresses","No contract interactions despite activity — possible EOA-only transfers"],"greenFlags":["Wallet age: 286 days","Heavy on-chain activity: 2000 txs","Significant USDC flow: $35,610","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-21T06:34:21.387Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":724025.59,"pnlVerified":false},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0x2005d16a84ceefa912d4e380cd32e7ff827875ea","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":12386.61,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":94,"largestWithdrawal":1189.04,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2025-07-09","fetchedAt":"2026-04-21T06:34:21.595Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 286 days, 2000 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $12,387 in / $0 out across 94 withdrawal tx since 2025-07-09.","3100 total trades across 857 markets.","966 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 38.4% — needs improvement.","Skill: 14/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 100/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -465.3% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.2214 RES=0.0017 UNC=0.0472.","Log loss: 0.7662 (skill: -287.8% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events."],"flags":["Overconfidence bias: 0.384","High luck component: 100/100 — returns may not persist","Brier Skill Score: -465.3% — performing worse than naive baseline","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Net loss: -$722344 total PnL","Low win rate: 5%","PnL divergence: $724026 gap between API and on-chain USDC flows"],"greenFlags":["Well-diversified: 857 unique markets","On-chain: 286-day wallet history on Polygon","On-chain: human-like trading patterns","On-chain: $12,387 total USDC.e received from Polymarket contracts across 94 tx (Polygon)"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-21T06:34:23.220Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance.","cached":true,"cachedAt":1776753263220}