{"wallet":"0x2005d16a84ceefa912d4e380cd32e7ff827875ea","displayName":"RN1","pseudonym":"Scary-Edible","raw":{"totalTrades":5000,"totalVolume":1564198.71,"totalPnl":-5073313.79,"realizedPnl":2704349.88,"unrealizedPnl":-7777663.67,"winRate":0.069,"openPositions":12,"resolvedBets":969,"uniqueMarkets":992},"calibration":7,"profitability":0,"consistency":67,"discipline":93,"sampleSize":100,"liveEdge":41,"trustScore":39,"trustGrade":"D","trustTier":"RISKY","confidence":{"level":"high","margin":3,"resolvedBets":969,"description":"D/39 [CI95: D→D, 38-40] (969 resolved bets)","ci95":{"scoreLow":38,"scoreHigh":40,"gradeLow":"D","gradeHigh":"D","iterations":1000,"insufficientData":false}},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.04460550829766368,"totalBets":107,"correctBets":11,"actualRate":0.102803738317757,"expectedRate":0.04460550829766368,"error":0.058198230020093326},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.15394079628876198,"totalBets":78,"correctBets":6,"actualRate":0.07692307692307693,"expectedRate":0.15394079628876198,"error":0.07701771936568505},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.25016400706327796,"totalBets":94,"correctBets":8,"actualRate":0.0851063829787234,"expectedRate":0.25016400706327796,"error":0.16505762408455454},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.35129486765638007,"totalBets":102,"correctBets":8,"actualRate":0.0784313725490196,"expectedRate":0.35129486765638007,"error":0.27286349510736047},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.44339817474901677,"totalBets":132,"correctBets":9,"actualRate":0.06818181818181818,"expectedRate":0.44339817474901677,"error":0.3752163565671986},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5470059079097784,"totalBets":138,"correctBets":5,"actualRate":0.036231884057971016,"expectedRate":0.5470059079097784,"error":0.5107740238518074},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6453051089300117,"totalBets":104,"correctBets":4,"actualRate":0.038461538461538464,"expectedRate":0.6453051089300117,"error":0.6068435704684733},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.7493071685568068,"totalBets":84,"correctBets":5,"actualRate":0.05952380952380952,"expectedRate":0.7493071685568068,"error":0.6897833590329973},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.851604591985238,"totalBets":72,"correctBets":6,"actualRate":0.08333333333333333,"expectedRate":0.851604591985238,"error":0.7682712586519046},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.9525054925965458,"totalBets":58,"correctBets":5,"actualRate":0.08620689655172414,"expectedRate":0.9525054925965458,"error":0.8662985960448217}],"brierScore":0.3026,"calibrationError":0.4151,"resolvedBets":969,"overconfidenceBias":0.4022,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":10.3,"luck":32.2,"edge":-63.62},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.2372,"resolution":0.0005,"uncertainty":0.0644},"brierSkillScore":-3.7014,"logLoss":0.8882,"logLossSkill":-2.533,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":1,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":1}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0x2005d16a84ceefa912d4e380cd32e7ff827875ea","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1752014409,"firstTxDate":"2025-07-08","walletAgeDays":435,"totalTransactions":1000,"uniqueCounterparties":0,"inboundTxCount":0,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":998,"totalUsdcIn":10283.88,"totalUsdcOut":8950.65,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":3,"contractInteractions":0,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0,"medianTxIntervalSec":0,"burstTxCount":0,"provenanceScore":68,"provenanceGrade":"B","flags":["Limited counterparties: only 0 unique addresses","No contract interactions despite activity — possible EOA-only transfers"],"greenFlags":["Wallet age: 435 days (mature)","Heavy on-chain activity: 1000 txs","Significant USDC flow: $19,235","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-09-17T15:04:56.909Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":5074647.02,"pnlVerified":false},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0x2005d16a84ceefa912d4e380cd32e7ff827875ea","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":5433.73,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":29,"largestWithdrawal":1189.04,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2025-07-09","fetchedAt":"2026-09-17T15:04:56.673Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 435 days, 1000 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $5,434 in / $0 out across 29 withdrawal tx since 2025-07-09.","5000 total trades across 992 markets.","969 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 41.5% — needs improvement.","Skill: 10/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 32/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -370.1% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.2372 RES=0.0005 UNC=0.0644.","Log loss: 0.8882 (skill: -253.3% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.","Timeliness: avg entry 1.0 days before resolution, 0% early mover."],"flags":["Overconfidence bias: 0.402","Brier Skill Score: -370.1% — performing worse than naive baseline","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Net loss: -$5073314 total PnL","Low win rate: 7%","PnL divergence: $5074647 gap between API and on-chain USDC flows"],"greenFlags":["Well-diversified: 992 unique markets","On-chain: 435-day wallet history on Polygon","On-chain: human-like trading patterns"],"scoredAt":"2026-09-17T15:05:05.510Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance.","antiSybil":{"eligibleForGrade":true,"ageFactor":0.7,"reason":"Wallet age unknown; 969 resolved bets supply enough PoW to grade (factor 0.70)","ageDaysUsed":null},"cached":true,"cachedAt":1789657505754}