{"wallet":"0x204f72f35326db932158cba6adff0b9a1da95e14","displayName":"swisstony","pseudonym":"Frail-Possible","raw":{"totalTrades":5000,"totalVolume":963053.97,"totalPnl":247.81,"realizedPnl":0,"unrealizedPnl":247.81,"winRate":0.154,"openPositions":328,"resolvedBets":501,"uniqueMarkets":637},"calibration":6,"profitability":40,"consistency":31,"discipline":96,"sampleSize":100,"liveEdge":50,"trustScore":44,"trustGrade":"D","trustTier":"RISKY","confidence":{"level":"high","margin":3,"resolvedBets":501,"description":"D/44 [CI95: D→D, 43-45] (501 resolved bets)","ci95":{"scoreLow":43,"scoreHigh":45,"gradeLow":"D","gradeHigh":"D","iterations":1000,"insufficientData":false}},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.04214516827765758,"totalBets":76,"correctBets":31,"actualRate":0.40789473684210525,"expectedRate":0.04214516827765758,"error":0.3657495685644477},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.14960738756133607,"totalBets":39,"correctBets":9,"actualRate":0.23076923076923078,"expectedRate":0.14960738756133607,"error":0.08116184320789471},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.2544647282326895,"totalBets":48,"correctBets":5,"actualRate":0.10416666666666667,"expectedRate":0.2544647282326895,"error":0.15029806156602282},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.35263330561467027,"totalBets":58,"correctBets":13,"actualRate":0.22413793103448276,"expectedRate":0.35263330561467027,"error":0.1284953745801875},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.45143347635657943,"totalBets":60,"correctBets":6,"actualRate":0.1,"expectedRate":0.45143347635657943,"error":0.3514334763565794},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5419228027429843,"totalBets":67,"correctBets":4,"actualRate":0.05970149253731343,"expectedRate":0.5419228027429843,"error":0.4822213102056709},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6481111567612772,"totalBets":45,"correctBets":3,"actualRate":0.06666666666666667,"expectedRate":0.6481111567612772,"error":0.5814444900946105},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.7517600693037109,"totalBets":39,"correctBets":2,"actualRate":0.05128205128205128,"expectedRate":0.7517600693037109,"error":0.7004780180216595},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8502488172133025,"totalBets":35,"correctBets":1,"actualRate":0.02857142857142857,"expectedRate":0.8502488172133025,"error":0.8216773886418739},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.9369845845008942,"totalBets":34,"correctBets":3,"actualRate":0.08823529411764706,"expectedRate":0.9369845845008942,"error":0.8487492903832471}],"brierScore":0.3521,"calibrationError":0.4194,"resolvedBets":501,"overconfidenceBias":0.2958,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":12.1,"luck":80.3,"edge":-106.32},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.2354,"resolution":0.0155,"uncertainty":0.1301},"brierSkillScore":-1.7071,"logLoss":1.0582,"logLossSkill":-1.4663,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":22.6,"earlyMoverPct":1,"timelinessScore":63}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0x204f72f35326db932158cba6adff0b9a1da95e14","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1754565231,"firstTxDate":"2025-08-07","walletAgeDays":406,"totalTransactions":1000,"uniqueCounterparties":0,"inboundTxCount":0,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":998,"totalUsdcIn":92947.16,"totalUsdcOut":83704.62,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":3,"contractInteractions":0,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0,"medianTxIntervalSec":0,"burstTxCount":0,"provenanceScore":68,"provenanceGrade":"B","flags":["Limited counterparties: only 0 unique addresses","No contract interactions despite activity — possible EOA-only transfers"],"greenFlags":["Wallet age: 406 days (mature)","Heavy on-chain activity: 1000 txs","Significant USDC flow: $176,652","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-09-17T14:05:13.561Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":8994.73,"pnlVerified":true},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0x204f72f35326db932158cba6adff0b9a1da95e14","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":64726.16,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":61,"largestWithdrawal":9587.51,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2025-08-11","fetchedAt":"2026-09-17T14:05:13.641Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 406 days, 1000 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $64,726 in / $0 out across 61 withdrawal tx since 2025-08-11.","5000 total trades across 637 markets.","501 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 41.9% — needs improvement.","Skill: 12/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 80/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -170.7% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.2354 RES=0.0155 UNC=0.1301.","Log loss: 1.0582 (skill: -146.6% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.","Timeliness: avg entry 22.6 days before resolution, 100% early mover."],"flags":["Weak Brier score: 0.3521","Overconfidence bias: 0.296","High luck component: 80/100 — returns may not persist","Brier Skill Score: -170.7% — performing worse than naive baseline","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Low win rate: 15%"],"greenFlags":["Early mover: avg 23 days before resolution","Net profitable: +$248 total PnL","Well-diversified: 637 unique markets","On-chain: 406-day wallet history on Polygon","On-chain: human-like trading patterns","On-chain: $64,726 total USDC.e received from Polymarket contracts across 61 tx (Polygon)"],"scoredAt":"2026-09-17T14:05:22.335Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance.","antiSybil":{"eligibleForGrade":true,"ageFactor":0.7,"reason":"Wallet age unknown; 501 resolved bets supply enough PoW to grade (factor 0.70)","ageDaysUsed":null},"cached":true,"cachedAt":1789653922580}