{"wallet":"0x204f72f35326db932158cba6adff0b9a1da95e14","displayName":"swisstony","pseudonym":"Frail-Possible","raw":{"totalTrades":3100,"totalVolume":495441.4,"totalPnl":-70105.18,"realizedPnl":-20509.75,"unrealizedPnl":-49595.43,"winRate":0.538,"openPositions":44,"resolvedBets":956,"uniqueMarkets":513},"calibration":34,"profitability":12,"consistency":7,"discipline":96,"sampleSize":100,"liveEdge":60,"trustScore":43,"trustGrade":"D","trustTier":"RISKY","confidence":{"level":"high","margin":3,"resolvedBets":956,"description":"D/43 ± 3 (high confidence, 956 resolved bets)"},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.05001132075471695,"totalBets":106,"correctBets":60,"actualRate":0.5660377358490566,"expectedRate":0.05001132075471695,"error":0.5160264150943397},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.14982028985507245,"totalBets":138,"correctBets":86,"actualRate":0.6231884057971014,"expectedRate":0.14982028985507245,"error":0.473368115942029},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.2491128571428572,"totalBets":140,"correctBets":90,"actualRate":0.6428571428571429,"expectedRate":0.2491128571428572,"error":0.3937442857142857},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.35098955223880607,"totalBets":134,"correctBets":72,"actualRate":0.5373134328358209,"expectedRate":0.35098955223880607,"error":0.18632388059701482},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.45274687499999994,"totalBets":128,"correctBets":64,"actualRate":0.5,"expectedRate":0.45274687499999994,"error":0.04725312500000006},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5449122807017543,"totalBets":114,"correctBets":46,"actualRate":0.40350877192982454,"expectedRate":0.5449122807017543,"error":0.1414035087719298},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6420375000000001,"totalBets":64,"correctBets":36,"actualRate":0.5625,"expectedRate":0.6420375000000001,"error":0.07953750000000015},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.751990909090909,"totalBets":66,"correctBets":24,"actualRate":0.36363636363636365,"expectedRate":0.751990909090909,"error":0.3883545454545454},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8581708333333333,"totalBets":48,"correctBets":20,"actualRate":0.4166666666666667,"expectedRate":0.8581708333333333,"error":0.44150416666666664},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.9588444444444444,"totalBets":18,"correctBets":16,"actualRate":0.8888888888888888,"expectedRate":0.9588444444444444,"error":0.06995555555555555}],"brierScore":0.3534,"calibrationError":0.2881,"resolvedBets":956,"overconfidenceBias":-0.1432,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":27.1,"luck":100,"edge":-1.52},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.1128,"resolution":0.0103,"uncertainty":0.2486},"brierSkillScore":-0.4215,"logLoss":1.0175,"logLossSkill":-0.474,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":0,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":0}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0x204f72f35326db932158cba6adff0b9a1da95e14","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1754565231,"firstTxDate":"2025-08-07","walletAgeDays":255,"totalTransactions":2000,"uniqueCounterparties":0,"inboundTxCount":0,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":1997,"totalUsdcIn":188617.35,"totalUsdcOut":168221.75,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":4,"contractInteractions":0,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0,"medianTxIntervalSec":0,"burstTxCount":0,"provenanceScore":63,"provenanceGrade":"B","flags":["Limited counterparties: only 0 unique addresses","No contract interactions despite activity — possible EOA-only transfers"],"greenFlags":["Wallet age: 255 days","Heavy on-chain activity: 2000 txs","Significant USDC flow: $356,839","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T01:45:14.813Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":90500.78,"pnlVerified":true},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 255 days, 2000 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","3100 total trades across 513 markets.","956 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 28.8% — needs improvement.","Skill: 27/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 100/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -42.1% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.1128 RES=0.0103 UNC=0.2486.","Log loss: 1.0175 (skill: -47.4% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events."],"flags":["Weak Brier score: 0.3534","High luck component: 100/100 — returns may not persist","Brier Skill Score: -42.1% — performing worse than naive baseline","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Net loss: -$70105 total PnL"],"greenFlags":["Conservative (underconfident) bias","Well-diversified: 513 unique markets","On-chain: 255-day wallet history on Polygon","On-chain: human-like trading patterns"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-20T01:45:16.826Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance.","cached":true,"cachedAt":1776649516826}