{"wallet":"0x218f36c313d6c012636b21cc6b5a043d9fef17bc","displayName":"dolita","pseudonym":"Outlandish-Dragon-Curler","raw":{"totalTrades":3100,"totalVolume":7779.61,"totalPnl":38.38,"realizedPnl":0,"unrealizedPnl":38.38,"winRate":0,"openPositions":8,"resolvedBets":46,"uniqueMarkets":45},"calibration":37,"profitability":41,"consistency":90,"discipline":87,"sampleSize":60,"liveEdge":39,"trustScore":48,"trustGrade":"D","trustTier":"RISKY","confidence":{"level":"low","margin":15,"resolvedBets":46,"description":"D/48 ± 15 (low confidence, 46 resolved bets)"},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.3394270591901495,"totalBets":2,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.3394270591901495,"error":0.3394270591901495},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.4653463716944717,"totalBets":31,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.4653463716944717,"error":0.4653463716944717},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5315776885752207,"totalBets":11,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.5315776885752207,"error":0.5315776885752207},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.66755,"totalBets":2,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.66755,"error":0.66755}],"brierScore":0.2385,"calibrationError":0.4845,"resolvedBets":46,"overconfidenceBias":0.4845,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":1.9,"luck":11.9,"edge":-107.65},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.2379,"resolution":0,"uncertainty":0},"brierSkillScore":0.0461,"logLoss":0.6703,"logLossSkill":-83.7732,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":0.1,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":0}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0x218f36c313d6c012636b21cc6b5a043d9fef17bc","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1776197472,"firstTxDate":"2026-04-14","walletAgeDays":7,"totalTransactions":2989,"uniqueCounterparties":9,"inboundTxCount":989,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":1999,"totalUsdcIn":12117.3,"totalUsdcOut":10106.08,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":3,"contractInteractions":989,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":50,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0.99,"medianTxIntervalSec":300,"burstTxCount":1,"provenanceScore":53,"provenanceGrade":"C","flags":["Young wallet: only 7 days old","Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction","Counterparty concentration: 99% with top address"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2989 txs","Significant USDC flow: $22,223","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-21T21:25:47.985Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":1972.84,"pnlVerified":false},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0x218f36c313d6c012636b21cc6b5a043d9fef17bc","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":10119.9,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":59,"largestWithdrawal":404.44,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-04-14","fetchedAt":"2026-04-21T21:30:59.474Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 7 days, 2989 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 50/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $10,120 in / $0 out across 59 withdrawal tx since 2026-04-14.","3100 total trades across 45 markets.","46 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 48.4% — needs improvement.","Skill: 2/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 12/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: 4.6% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.2379 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.","Log loss: 0.6703 (skill: -8377.3% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events."],"flags":["Overconfidence bias: 0.484","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address","Low win rate: 0%","PnL divergence: $1973 gap between API and on-chain USDC flows"],"greenFlags":["Net profitable: +$38 total PnL","Well-diversified: 45 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns","On-chain: $10,120 total USDC.e received from Polymarket contracts across 59 tx (Polygon)"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-21T21:31:07.561Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance."}