{"wallet":"0x23d18416645924e097c453e8ceadd4bfeb6a353f","displayName":"fcomp3","pseudonym":"Fine-Antecedent","raw":{"totalTrades":3100,"totalVolume":1629.02,"totalPnl":959.04,"realizedPnl":1660,"unrealizedPnl":-700.96,"winRate":0.034,"openPositions":230,"resolvedBets":766,"uniqueMarkets":677},"calibration":63,"profitability":100,"consistency":100,"discipline":99,"sampleSize":100,"liveEdge":96,"trustScore":49,"trustGrade":"D","trustTier":"RISKY","confidence":{"level":"high","margin":3,"resolvedBets":766,"description":"D/49 [CI95: D→D, 49-49] (766 resolved bets)","ci95":{"scoreLow":49,"scoreHigh":49,"gradeLow":"INS","gradeHigh":"INS","iterations":1000,"insufficientData":true}},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.05045586419753114,"totalBets":648,"correctBets":6,"actualRate":0.009259259259259259,"expectedRate":0.05045586419753114,"error":0.04119660493827188},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.15936153846153844,"totalBets":26,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.15936153846153844,"error":0.15936153846153844},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.2506230769230769,"totalBets":26,"correctBets":4,"actualRate":0.15384615384615385,"expectedRate":0.2506230769230769,"error":0.09677692307692304},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.35957272727272716,"totalBets":22,"correctBets":6,"actualRate":0.2727272727272727,"expectedRate":0.35957272727272716,"error":0.08684545454545445},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.4869428571428571,"totalBets":14,"correctBets":10,"actualRate":0.7142857142857143,"expectedRate":0.4869428571428571,"error":0.22734285714285718},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5,"totalBets":30,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.5,"error":0.5}],"brierScore":0.0349,"calibrationError":0.0698,"resolvedBets":766,"overconfidenceBias":0.0615,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":53.4,"luck":45.2,"edge":-75.78},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.0136,"resolution":0.0112,"uncertainty":0.0328},"brierSkillScore":-0.0635,"logLoss":0.145,"logLossSkill":0.0217,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":0,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":0}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0x23d18416645924e097c453e8ceadd4bfeb6a353f","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1775450597,"firstTxDate":"2026-04-06","walletAgeDays":20,"totalTransactions":2801,"uniqueCounterparties":30,"inboundTxCount":801,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":1999,"totalUsdcIn":7658.64,"totalUsdcOut":5440,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":3,"contractInteractions":801,"botScore":80,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0.04,"medianTxIntervalSec":6,"burstTxCount":229,"provenanceScore":63,"provenanceGrade":"B","flags":["Young wallet: only 20 days old","Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction","Bot-like behavior detected: 229 burst txs, median interval 6s"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2801 txs","Significant USDC flow: $13,099","Diverse trading network: 30 counterparties"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-26T05:24:33.232Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":1259.6,"pnlVerified":false},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0x23d18416645924e097c453e8ceadd4bfeb6a353f","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":0,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":5440,"withdrawalTxCount":0,"largestWithdrawal":0,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-04-06","fetchedAt":"2026-04-26T05:24:32.528Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 20 days, 2801 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 80/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $0 in / $5,440 out across 0 withdrawal tx since 2026-04-06.","3100 total trades across 677 markets.","766 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 7.0% — excellent.","Skill: 53/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 45/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -6.3% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.0136 RES=0.0112 UNC=0.0328.","Log loss: 0.1450 (skill: 2.2% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events."],"flags":["Penny-lottery strategy: 85% of bets at sub-$0.10 — score penalized by 30 pts","Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address","Low win rate: 3%","PnL divergence: $1260 gap between API and on-chain USDC flows","On-chain: bot-like trading patterns detected (bot score: 80)","young_wallet: Wallet is only 19 days old — force-INS (threshold 30d)"],"greenFlags":["Strong Brier score: 0.0349","Strong live edge: 230 open positions trending profitable","Net profitable: +$959 total PnL","Well-diversified: 677 unique markets","On-chain: diverse counterparty network"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-26T05:24:40.105Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance.","antiSybil":{"eligibleForGrade":false,"ageFactor":0,"reason":"Wallet is only 19 days old — force-INS (threshold 30d)","ageDaysUsed":19}}