{"wallet":"0x251c1a283703beed41590b0875a8dcb8ddd1541f","displayName":"0xAAAAA","pseudonym":"Suburban-Characterization","raw":{"totalTrades":3100,"totalVolume":27529.56,"totalPnl":-4858.04,"realizedPnl":0,"unrealizedPnl":-4858.04,"winRate":0.042,"openPositions":8,"resolvedBets":236,"uniqueMarkets":205},"calibration":6,"profitability":5,"consistency":78,"discipline":84,"sampleSize":88,"liveEdge":34,"trustScore":33,"trustGrade":"F","trustTier":"DANGER","confidence":{"level":"high","margin":3,"resolvedBets":236,"description":"F/33 [CI95: F→F, 31-34] (236 resolved bets)","ci95":{"scoreLow":31,"scoreHigh":34,"gradeLow":"INS","gradeHigh":"INS","iterations":1000,"insufficientData":true}},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.04663333333333333,"totalBets":6,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.04663333333333333,"error":0.04663333333333333},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.15202727272727273,"totalBets":22,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.15202727272727273,"error":0.15202727272727273},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.24310909090909094,"totalBets":22,"correctBets":2,"actualRate":0.09090909090909091,"expectedRate":0.24310909090909094,"error":0.15220000000000003},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.34485000000000005,"totalBets":44,"correctBets":2,"actualRate":0.045454545454545456,"expectedRate":0.34485000000000005,"error":0.2993954545454546},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.44274736842105267,"totalBets":38,"correctBets":2,"actualRate":0.05263157894736842,"expectedRate":0.44274736842105267,"error":0.39011578947368425},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5547608695652173,"totalBets":46,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.5547608695652173,"error":0.5547608695652173},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6486099999999999,"totalBets":20,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.6486099999999999,"error":0.6486099999999999},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.7523099999999999,"totalBets":20,"correctBets":4,"actualRate":0.2,"expectedRate":0.7523099999999999,"error":0.5523099999999999},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.854525,"totalBets":8,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.854525,"error":0.854525},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.93904,"totalBets":10,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.93904,"error":0.93904}],"brierScore":0.2657,"calibrationError":0.4268,"resolvedBets":236,"overconfidenceBias":0.4268,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":9.3,"luck":35.7,"edge":-52.59},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.2292,"resolution":0.0032,"uncertainty":0.0406},"brierSkillScore":-5.5479,"logLoss":0.7657,"logLossSkill":-3.3651,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":0,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":0}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0x251c1a283703beed41590b0875a8dcb8ddd1541f","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1777296816,"firstTxDate":"2026-04-27","walletAgeDays":54,"totalTransactions":2151,"uniqueCounterparties":26,"inboundTxCount":151,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":2000,"totalUsdcIn":22891.84,"totalUsdcOut":15024.92,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":2,"contractInteractions":151,"botScore":100,"washTradingScore":20,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0.83,"medianTxIntervalSec":4,"burstTxCount":86,"provenanceScore":68,"provenanceGrade":"B","flags":["Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction","Bot-like behavior detected: 86 burst txs, median interval 4s"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2151 txs","Significant USDC flow: $37,917"],"fetchedAt":"2026-06-21T08:02:36.065Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":12724.96,"pnlVerified":false},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0x251c1a283703beed41590b0875a8dcb8ddd1541f","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":0,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":0,"largestWithdrawal":0,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"never","fetchedAt":"2026-06-21T08:02:35.852Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 54 days, 2151 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 100/100, wash trading score: 20/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $0 in / $0 out across 0 withdrawal tx since never.","3100 total trades across 205 markets.","236 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 42.7% — needs improvement.","Skill: 9/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 36/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -554.8% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.2292 RES=0.0032 UNC=0.0406.","Log loss: 0.7657 (skill: -336.5% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events."],"flags":["Overconfidence bias: 0.427","Brier Skill Score: -554.8% — performing worse than naive baseline","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address","Net loss: -$4858 total PnL","Low win rate: 4%","PnL divergence: $12725 gap between API and on-chain USDC flows","On-chain: bot-like trading patterns detected (bot score: 100)","young_wallet: Wallet is only 0 days old — force-INS (threshold 30d)"],"greenFlags":["Well-diversified: 205 unique markets"],"scoredAt":"2026-06-21T08:02:43.485Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance.","antiSybil":{"eligibleForGrade":false,"ageFactor":0,"reason":"Wallet is only 0 days old — force-INS (threshold 30d)","ageDaysUsed":0}}