{"wallet":"0x25e3ca4349e7c48a8a4b8d07e8a355c4003c9f8c","displayName":"Corny-Adviser","pseudonym":"Corny-Adviser","raw":{"totalTrades":3100,"totalVolume":3719.06,"totalPnl":-3894.44,"realizedPnl":2.08,"unrealizedPnl":-3896.52,"winRate":0,"openPositions":28,"resolvedBets":972,"uniqueMarkets":346},"calibration":76,"profitability":0,"consistency":100,"discipline":91,"sampleSize":100,"liveEdge":64,"trustScore":66,"trustGrade":"B","trustTier":"SOLID","confidence":{"level":"high","margin":3,"resolvedBets":972,"description":"B/66 [CI95: B→B, 65-67] (972 resolved bets)","ci95":{"scoreLow":65,"scoreHigh":67,"gradeLow":"B","gradeHigh":"B","iterations":1000,"insufficientData":false}},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.04541287553648063,"totalBets":466,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.04541287553648063,"error":0.04541287553648063},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.14241134020618562,"totalBets":194,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.14241134020618562,"error":0.14241134020618562},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.2378057142857143,"totalBets":70,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.2378057142857143,"error":0.2378057142857143},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.34310588235294115,"totalBets":34,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.34310588235294115,"error":0.34310588235294115},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.4429636363636363,"totalBets":22,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.4429636363636363,"error":0.4429636363636363},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5562666666666667,"totalBets":6,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.5562666666666667,"error":0.5562666666666667},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6465315789473683,"totalBets":38,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.6465315789473683,"error":0.6465315789473683},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.753915,"totalBets":40,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.753915,"error":0.753915},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8553411764705883,"totalBets":34,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.8553411764705883,"error":0.8553411764705883},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.952208823529412,"totalBets":68,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.952208823529412,"error":0.952208823529412}],"brierScore":0.149,"calibrationError":0.2456,"resolvedBets":972,"overconfidenceBias":0.2456,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":30.5,"luck":54.2,"edge":-20.42},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.1483,"resolution":0,"uncertainty":0},"brierSkillScore":0.4038,"logLoss":0.5026,"logLossSkill":-62.5592,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":0,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":0}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0x25e3ca4349e7c48a8a4b8d07e8a355c4003c9f8c","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1773241657,"firstTxDate":"2026-03-11","walletAgeDays":111,"totalTransactions":2000,"uniqueCounterparties":0,"inboundTxCount":0,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":1996,"totalUsdcIn":6541.48,"totalUsdcOut":4921.69,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":5,"contractInteractions":0,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0,"medianTxIntervalSec":0,"burstTxCount":0,"provenanceScore":58,"provenanceGrade":"C","flags":["Limited counterparties: only 0 unique addresses","No contract interactions despite activity — possible EOA-only transfers"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2000 txs","Significant USDC flow: $11,463","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-07-01T11:39:41.526Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":5514.23,"pnlVerified":false},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0x25e3ca4349e7c48a8a4b8d07e8a355c4003c9f8c","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":176.87,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":2,"largestWithdrawal":153.85,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-03-18","fetchedAt":"2026-07-01T11:39:34.269Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 111 days, 2000 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $177 in / $0 out across 2 withdrawal tx since 2026-03-18.","3100 total trades across 346 markets.","972 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 24.6% — needs improvement.","Skill: 31/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 54/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: 40.4% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.1483 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.","Log loss: 0.5026 (skill: -6255.9% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events."],"flags":["Overconfidence bias: 0.246","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Net loss: -$3894 total PnL","Low win rate: 0%","PnL divergence: $5514 gap between API and on-chain USDC flows"],"greenFlags":["Strong Brier score: 0.149","Brier Skill Score: 40.4% better than naive baseline","Well-diversified: 346 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns"],"scoredAt":"2026-07-01T11:39:41.540Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance.","antiSybil":{"eligibleForGrade":true,"ageFactor":0.40706303342897554,"reason":"Wallet age 110d → difficulty factor 0.41","ageDaysUsed":110}}