{"wallet":"0x25f4707c93e4bfdf26cd6c5cc46c5464691cf88e","displayName":"4fee-s1-test","pseudonym":"Foolhardy-Highway","raw":{"totalTrades":3100,"totalVolume":8677.18,"totalPnl":-3279.14,"realizedPnl":-50.9,"unrealizedPnl":-3228.24,"winRate":0.004,"openPositions":6,"resolvedBets":994,"uniqueMarkets":823},"calibration":1,"profitability":0,"consistency":98,"discipline":91,"sampleSize":100,"liveEdge":42,"trustScore":37,"trustGrade":"D","trustTier":"RISKY","confidence":{"level":"high","margin":3,"resolvedBets":994,"description":"D/37 [CI95: D→D, 37-37] (994 resolved bets)","ci95":{"scoreLow":37,"scoreHigh":37,"gradeLow":"INS","gradeHigh":"INS","iterations":1000,"insufficientData":true}},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.15802000000000005,"totalBets":10,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.15802000000000005,"error":0.15802000000000005},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.270428,"totalBets":50,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.270428,"error":0.270428},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.35139902912621346,"totalBets":206,"correctBets":4,"actualRate":0.019417475728155338,"expectedRate":0.35139902912621346,"error":0.3319815533980581},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.45266470588235264,"totalBets":238,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.45266470588235264,"error":0.45266470588235264},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5336711267605636,"totalBets":284,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.5336711267605636,"error":0.5336711267605636},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6457038961038959,"totalBets":154,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.6457038961038959,"error":0.6457038961038959},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.7292526315789472,"totalBets":38,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.7292526315789472,"error":0.7292526315789472},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8331799999999999,"totalBets":10,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.8331799999999999,"error":0.8331799999999999},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.9137,"totalBets":4,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.9137,"error":0.9137}],"brierScore":0.2569,"calibrationError":0.4848,"resolvedBets":994,"overconfidenceBias":0.4848,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":1.8,"luck":14.3,"edge":-85.42},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.2525,"resolution":0.0001,"uncertainty":0.004},"brierSkillScore":-63.1004,"logLoss":0.712,"logLossSkill":-26.163,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":0,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":0}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0x25f4707c93e4bfdf26cd6c5cc46c5464691cf88e","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1775045245,"firstTxDate":"2026-04-01","walletAgeDays":21,"totalTransactions":2962,"uniqueCounterparties":30,"inboundTxCount":962,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":1999,"totalUsdcIn":5195.6,"totalUsdcOut":4735.14,"protocolsUsed":["USDC","USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":4,"contractInteractions":962,"botScore":80,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0.04,"medianTxIntervalSec":6,"burstTxCount":436,"provenanceScore":61,"provenanceGrade":"B","flags":["Young wallet: only 21 days old","Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction","Bot-like behavior detected: 436 burst txs, median interval 6s"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2962 txs","Diverse trading network: 30 counterparties"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-23T07:53:41.044Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":3739.6,"pnlVerified":false},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0x25f4707c93e4bfdf26cd6c5cc46c5464691cf88e","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":2521.26,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":110,"largestWithdrawal":107,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-04-01","fetchedAt":"2026-04-23T07:59:22.125Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 21 days, 2962 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 80/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $2,521 in / $0 out across 110 withdrawal tx since 2026-04-01.","3100 total trades across 823 markets.","994 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 48.5% — needs improvement.","Skill: 2/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 14/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -6310.0% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.2525 RES=0.0001 UNC=0.0040.","Log loss: 0.7120 (skill: -2616.3% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events."],"flags":["Overconfidence bias: 0.485","Brier Skill Score: -6310.0% — performing worse than naive baseline","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address","Net loss: -$3279 total PnL","Low win rate: 0%","PnL divergence: $3740 gap between API and on-chain USDC flows","On-chain: bot-like trading patterns detected (bot score: 80)","young_wallet: Wallet is only 21 days old — force-INS (threshold 30d)"],"greenFlags":["Well-diversified: 823 unique markets","On-chain: diverse counterparty network"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-23T07:59:29.321Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance.","antiSybil":{"eligibleForGrade":false,"ageFactor":0,"reason":"Wallet is only 21 days old — force-INS (threshold 30d)","ageDaysUsed":21}}