{"wallet":"0x273bc3c29fdadce5bfffb23bdca399984fcb349f","displayName":"jxawg","pseudonym":"Lavish-Gobbler","raw":{"totalTrades":1484,"totalVolume":3957.91,"totalPnl":82.27,"realizedPnl":0,"unrealizedPnl":82.27,"winRate":0,"openPositions":4,"resolvedBets":150,"uniqueMarkets":281},"calibration":10,"profitability":44,"consistency":60,"discipline":86,"sampleSize":88,"liveEdge":100,"trustScore":53,"trustGrade":"C","trustTier":"DEVELOPING","confidence":{"level":"medium","margin":8,"resolvedBets":150,"description":"C/53 ± 8 (medium confidence, 150 resolved bets)"},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.010000000000000009,"totalBets":1,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.010000000000000009,"error":0.010000000000000009},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.13175630326964102,"totalBets":5,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.13175630326964102,"error":0.13175630326964102},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.2610817632106828,"totalBets":6,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.2610817632106828,"error":0.2610817632106828},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.3419470382838338,"totalBets":13,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.3419470382838338,"error":0.3419470382838338},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.45427257435579377,"totalBets":20,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.45427257435579377,"error":0.45427257435579377},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5465006213499064,"totalBets":21,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.5465006213499064,"error":0.5465006213499064},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6555102540139685,"totalBets":30,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.6555102540139685,"error":0.6555102540139685},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.7359103890544992,"totalBets":24,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.7359103890544992,"error":0.7359103890544992},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8435219669648886,"totalBets":18,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.8435219669648886,"error":0.8435219669648886},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.9506541462957326,"totalBets":12,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.9506541462957326,"error":0.9506541462957326}],"brierScore":0.4138,"calibrationError":0.6077,"resolvedBets":150,"overconfidenceBias":0.6077,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":0,"luck":16.1,"edge":-47.8},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.413,"resolution":0,"uncertainty":0},"brierSkillScore":-0.655,"logLoss":1.1534,"logLossSkill":-144.8651,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":1.4,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":1}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0x273bc3c29fdadce5bfffb23bdca399984fcb349f","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1776304336,"firstTxDate":"2026-04-16","walletAgeDays":4,"totalTransactions":2041,"uniqueCounterparties":2,"inboundTxCount":41,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":1999,"totalUsdcIn":4751.27,"totalUsdcOut":4207.14,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":3,"contractInteractions":41,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":80,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0.98,"medianTxIntervalSec":2892,"burstTxCount":0,"provenanceScore":38,"provenanceGrade":"D","flags":["Very new wallet: 4 days old — possible sybil","Limited counterparties: only 2 unique addresses","Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction","Wash trading signal: 98% of txs with single counterparty"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2041 txs","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T03:14:28.417Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":461.86,"pnlVerified":true},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0x273bc3c29fdadce5bfffb23bdca399984fcb349f","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":2919.01,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":111,"largestWithdrawal":135.15,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-04-17","fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T03:14:28.732Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 4 days, 2041 txs, provenance grade D. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 80/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $2,919 in / $0 out across 111 withdrawal tx since 2026-04-17.","1484 total trades across 281 markets.","150 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 60.8% — needs improvement.","Skill: 0/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 16/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -65.5% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.4130 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.","Log loss: 1.1534 (skill: -14486.5% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.","Timeliness: avg entry 1.4 days before resolution, 0% early mover."],"flags":["Weak Brier score: 0.4138","Overconfidence bias: 0.608","Brier Skill Score: -65.5% — performing worse than naive baseline","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address","Low win rate: 0%","On-chain: wallet only 4 days old on Polygon","On-chain: wash trading signal — 98% of txs with single counterparty"],"greenFlags":["Strong live edge: 4 open positions trending profitable","Net profitable: +$82 total PnL","Well-diversified: 281 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-20T03:14:34.645Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance."}