{"wallet":"0x27abdfc9393c72a6330a3be987da4b46c726e521","displayName":"pd.unique","pseudonym":"Wise-Keyboard","raw":{"totalTrades":3100,"totalVolume":128381.1,"totalPnl":-82061.17,"realizedPnl":79494.22,"unrealizedPnl":-161555.39,"winRate":0,"openPositions":0,"resolvedBets":1000,"uniqueMarkets":457},"calibration":98,"profitability":0,"consistency":100,"discipline":50,"sampleSize":100,"liveEdge":40,"trustScore":57,"trustGrade":"C","trustTier":"DEVELOPING","confidence":{"level":"high","margin":3,"resolvedBets":1000,"description":"C/57 [CI95: C→C, 57-57] (1000 resolved bets)","ci95":{"scoreLow":57,"scoreHigh":57,"gradeLow":"C","gradeHigh":"C","iterations":1000,"insufficientData":false}},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.025695757575757774,"totalBets":990,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.025695757575757774,"error":0.025695757575757774},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.125,"totalBets":8,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.125,"error":0.125},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.25,"totalBets":2,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.25,"error":0.25}],"brierScore":0.0012,"calibrationError":0.0269,"resolvedBets":1000,"overconfidenceBias":0.0269,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":56.8,"luck":60,"edge":-98.33},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.0009,"resolution":0,"uncertainty":0},"brierSkillScore":0.9954,"logLoss":0.0276,"logLossSkill":-2.4842,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":0,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":0}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0x27abdfc9393c72a6330a3be987da4b46c726e521","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1775174607,"firstTxDate":"2026-04-03","walletAgeDays":36,"totalTransactions":2615,"uniqueCounterparties":30,"inboundTxCount":615,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":1999,"totalUsdcIn":26271.17,"totalUsdcOut":21305.71,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":3,"contractInteractions":615,"botScore":40,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0.05,"medianTxIntervalSec":12,"burstTxCount":43,"provenanceScore":68,"provenanceGrade":"B","flags":["Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction","Possible automated trading: 43 burst txs"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2615 txs","Significant USDC flow: $47,577","Diverse trading network: 30 counterparties"],"fetchedAt":"2026-05-09T02:39:21.137Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":87026.63,"pnlVerified":false},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0x27abdfc9393c72a6330a3be987da4b46c726e521","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":0,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":0,"largestWithdrawal":0,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"never","fetchedAt":"2026-05-09T02:39:20.323Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 36 days, 2615 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 40/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $0 in / $0 out across 0 withdrawal tx since never.","3100 total trades across 457 markets.","1000 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 2.7% — excellent.","Skill: 57/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 60/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: 99.5% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.0009 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.","Log loss: 0.0276 (skill: -248.4% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events."],"flags":["Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address","Net loss: -$82061 total PnL","Low win rate: 0%","Concentrated portfolio: 100% in single market","PnL divergence: $87027 gap between API and on-chain USDC flows","On-chain: possible automated trading (bot score: 40)"],"greenFlags":["Strong Brier score: 0.0012","Brier Skill Score: 99.5% better than naive baseline","Well-diversified: 457 unique markets","On-chain: diverse counterparty network"],"scoredAt":"2026-05-09T02:39:27.542Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance.","antiSybil":{"eligibleForGrade":true,"ageFactor":0.05712101741848079,"reason":"Wallet age 36d → difficulty factor 0.06","ageDaysUsed":36}}