{"wallet":"0x2888a13d8903c82acbbfe970e83d923a57d467aa","displayName":"herbiez","pseudonym":"Jaunty-Milepost","raw":{"totalTrades":1642,"totalVolume":4477.4,"totalPnl":243.38,"realizedPnl":0,"unrealizedPnl":243.38,"winRate":0,"openPositions":4,"resolvedBets":261,"uniqueMarkets":286},"calibration":8,"profitability":51,"consistency":65,"discipline":85,"sampleSize":100,"liveEdge":100,"trustScore":55,"trustGrade":"C","trustTier":"DEVELOPING","confidence":{"level":"high","margin":3,"resolvedBets":261,"description":"C/55 ± 3 (high confidence, 261 resolved bets)"},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.010000000000000009,"totalBets":1,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.010000000000000009,"error":0.010000000000000009},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.14049038284194768,"totalBets":6,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.14049038284194768,"error":0.14049038284194768},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.26408914747644546,"totalBets":9,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.26408914747644546,"error":0.26408914747644546},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.3514507636971677,"totalBets":17,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.3514507636971677,"error":0.3514507636971677},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.4616786852157512,"totalBets":33,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.4616786852157512,"error":0.4616786852157512},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5558179650543746,"totalBets":36,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.5558179650543746,"error":0.5558179650543746},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6452175075059933,"totalBets":54,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.6452175075059933,"error":0.6452175075059933},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.7430701207177353,"totalBets":53,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.7430701207177353,"error":0.7430701207177353},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8469714074529346,"totalBets":34,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.8469714074529346,"error":0.8469714074529346},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.9432119324988721,"totalBets":18,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.9432119324988721,"error":0.9432119324988721}],"brierScore":0.4343,"calibrationError":0.6301,"resolvedBets":261,"overconfidenceBias":0.6301,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":0,"luck":16.4,"edge":-46.39},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.4335,"resolution":0,"uncertainty":0},"brierSkillScore":-0.737,"logLoss":1.1766,"logLossSkill":-147.8024,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":1.8,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":2}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0x2888a13d8903c82acbbfe970e83d923a57d467aa","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1776304150,"firstTxDate":"2026-04-16","walletAgeDays":4,"totalTransactions":2042,"uniqueCounterparties":2,"inboundTxCount":42,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":1999,"totalUsdcIn":5588.24,"totalUsdcOut":5000.09,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":3,"contractInteractions":42,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":80,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0.95,"medianTxIntervalSec":2740,"burstTxCount":0,"provenanceScore":43,"provenanceGrade":"C","flags":["Very new wallet: 4 days old — possible sybil","Limited counterparties: only 2 unique addresses","Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction","Wash trading signal: 95% of txs with single counterparty"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2042 txs","Significant USDC flow: $10,588","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T03:15:31.932Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":344.77,"pnlVerified":true},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0x2888a13d8903c82acbbfe970e83d923a57d467aa","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":2946.29,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":112,"largestWithdrawal":136.99,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-04-17","fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T03:15:32.220Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 4 days, 2042 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 80/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $2,946 in / $0 out across 112 withdrawal tx since 2026-04-17.","1642 total trades across 286 markets.","261 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 63.0% — needs improvement.","Skill: 0/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 16/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -73.7% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.4335 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.","Log loss: 1.1766 (skill: -14780.2% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.","Timeliness: avg entry 1.8 days before resolution, 0% early mover."],"flags":["Weak Brier score: 0.4343","Overconfidence bias: 0.630","Brier Skill Score: -73.7% — performing worse than naive baseline","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address","Low win rate: 0%","On-chain: wallet only 4 days old on Polygon","On-chain: wash trading signal — 95% of txs with single counterparty"],"greenFlags":["Strong live edge: 4 open positions trending profitable","Net profitable: +$243 total PnL","Well-diversified: 286 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-20T03:15:35.890Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance."}