{"wallet":"0x29cc9c7a33a2bda724e9822142b313c3209bc842","displayName":"verygooddeal","pseudonym":"Broken-Assistance","raw":{"totalTrades":1181,"totalVolume":7058.69,"totalPnl":-3157.6,"realizedPnl":0,"unrealizedPnl":-3157.6,"winRate":0,"openPositions":0,"resolvedBets":160,"uniqueMarkets":160},"calibration":27,"profitability":0,"consistency":38,"discipline":50,"sampleSize":88,"liveEdge":40,"trustScore":34,"trustGrade":"F","trustTier":"DANGER","confidence":{"level":"medium","margin":8,"resolvedBets":160,"description":"F/34 [CI95: F→D, 33-35] (160 resolved bets)","ci95":{"scoreLow":33,"scoreHigh":35,"gradeLow":"INS","gradeHigh":"INS","iterations":1000,"insufficientData":true}},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.16176544527633668,"totalBets":6,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.16176544527633668,"error":0.16176544527633668},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.24354635430548216,"totalBets":17,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.24354635430548216,"error":0.24354635430548216},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.3433300675375661,"totalBets":31,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.3433300675375661,"error":0.3433300675375661},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.4471827571549663,"totalBets":21,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.4471827571549663,"error":0.4471827571549663},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5426528009329382,"totalBets":40,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.5426528009329382,"error":0.5426528009329382},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6482134134839103,"totalBets":26,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.6482134134839103,"error":0.6482134134839103},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.737230957829549,"totalBets":10,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.737230957829549,"error":0.737230957829549},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8232876511842996,"totalBets":5,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.8232876511842996,"error":0.8232876511842996},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.9312780069111581,"totalBets":4,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.9312780069111581,"error":0.9312780069111581}],"brierScore":0.2759,"calibrationError":0.4932,"resolvedBets":160,"overconfidenceBias":0.4932,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":0.8,"luck":21,"edge":-89.96},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.2751,"resolution":0,"uncertainty":0},"brierSkillScore":-0.1036,"logLoss":0.7699,"logLossSkill":-96.3703,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":0.4,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":0}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0x29cc9c7a33a2bda724e9822142b313c3209bc842","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1782754351,"firstTxDate":"2026-06-29","walletAgeDays":0,"totalTransactions":1336,"uniqueCounterparties":0,"inboundTxCount":0,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":0,"totalUsdcIn":0,"totalUsdcOut":0,"protocolsUsed":[],"uniqueContractsInteracted":1,"contractInteractions":0,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0,"medianTxIntervalSec":0,"burstTxCount":0,"provenanceScore":25,"provenanceGrade":"D","flags":["Very new wallet: 0 days old — possible sybil","Limited counterparties: only 0 unique addresses","No contract interactions despite activity — possible EOA-only transfers"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 1336 txs","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-06-30T15:42:49.621Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":null,"pnlVerified":false},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0x29cc9c7a33a2bda724e9822142b313c3209bc842","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":0,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":0,"largestWithdrawal":0,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"never","fetchedAt":"2026-06-30T15:42:49.861Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 0 days, 1336 txs, provenance grade D. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $0 in / $0 out across 0 withdrawal tx since never.","1181 total trades across 160 markets.","160 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 49.3% — needs improvement.","Skill: 1/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 21/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -10.4% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.2751 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.","Log loss: 0.7699 (skill: -9637.0% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events."],"flags":["Overconfidence bias: 0.493","Brier Skill Score: -10.4% — performing worse than naive baseline","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Net loss: -$3158 total PnL","Low win rate: 0%","Concentrated portfolio: 100% in single market","On-chain: wallet only 0 days old on Polygon","young_wallet: Wallet is only 0 days old — force-INS (threshold 30d)"],"greenFlags":["Well-diversified: 160 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns"],"scoredAt":"2026-06-30T15:42:52.674Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance.","antiSybil":{"eligibleForGrade":false,"ageFactor":0,"reason":"Wallet is only 0 days old — force-INS (threshold 30d)","ageDaysUsed":0}}