{"wallet":"0x2a25f7cbf3fc823e315c31602d2eccab85788055","displayName":"animal.bean","pseudonym":"Average-Zampone","raw":{"totalTrades":3100,"totalVolume":4455.84,"totalPnl":-49436.55,"realizedPnl":2252.46,"unrealizedPnl":-51689.01,"winRate":0,"openPositions":20,"resolvedBets":980,"uniqueMarkets":654},"calibration":93,"profitability":0,"consistency":100,"discipline":89,"sampleSize":100,"liveEdge":84,"trustScore":74,"trustGrade":"B","trustTier":"SOLID","confidence":{"level":"high","margin":3,"resolvedBets":980,"description":"B/74 [CI95: B→B, 74-74] (980 resolved bets)","ci95":{"scoreLow":74,"scoreHigh":74,"gradeLow":"INS","gradeHigh":"INS","iterations":1000,"insufficientData":true}},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.04321425287356338,"totalBets":870,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.04321425287356338,"error":0.04321425287356338},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.14418999999999998,"totalBets":20,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.14418999999999998,"error":0.14418999999999998},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.25081999999999993,"totalBets":10,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.25081999999999993,"error":0.25081999999999993},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.38337499999999997,"totalBets":8,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.38337499999999997,"error":0.38337499999999997},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.47540000000000004,"totalBets":6,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.47540000000000004,"error":0.47540000000000004},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5,"totalBets":66,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.5,"error":0.5}],"brierScore":0.0226,"calibrationError":0.0836,"resolvedBets":980,"overconfidenceBias":0.0836,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":50,"luck":71,"edge":-100},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.0221,"resolution":0,"uncertainty":0},"brierSkillScore":0.9097,"logLoss":0.1002,"logLossSkill":-11.6669,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":0,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":0}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0x2a25f7cbf3fc823e315c31602d2eccab85788055","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1775321973,"firstTxDate":"2026-04-04","walletAgeDays":24,"totalTransactions":2000,"uniqueCounterparties":0,"inboundTxCount":0,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":2000,"totalUsdcIn":5703.99,"totalUsdcOut":5316.95,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":1,"contractInteractions":0,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0,"medianTxIntervalSec":0,"burstTxCount":0,"provenanceScore":48,"provenanceGrade":"C","flags":["Young wallet: only 24 days old","Limited counterparties: only 0 unique addresses","No contract interactions despite activity — possible EOA-only transfers"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2000 txs","Significant USDC flow: $11,021","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-28T18:18:28.126Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":49823.59,"pnlVerified":false},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0x2a25f7cbf3fc823e315c31602d2eccab85788055","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":0,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":2680.97,"withdrawalTxCount":0,"largestWithdrawal":0,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-04-04","fetchedAt":"2026-04-28T18:20:37.431Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 24 days, 2000 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $0 in / $2,681 out across 0 withdrawal tx since 2026-04-04.","3100 total trades across 654 markets.","980 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 8.4% — excellent.","Skill: 50/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 71/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: 91.0% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.0221 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.","Log loss: 0.1002 (skill: -1166.7% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events."],"flags":["High luck component: 71/100 — returns may not persist","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Net loss: -$49437 total PnL","Low win rate: 0%","PnL divergence: $49824 gap between API and on-chain USDC flows","young_wallet: Wallet is only 24 days old — force-INS (threshold 30d)"],"greenFlags":["Strong Brier score: 0.0226","Brier Skill Score: 91.0% better than naive baseline","Strong live edge: 20 open positions trending profitable","Well-diversified: 654 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-28T18:20:39.238Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance.","antiSybil":{"eligibleForGrade":false,"ageFactor":0,"reason":"Wallet is only 24 days old — force-INS (threshold 30d)","ageDaysUsed":24}}