{"wallet":"0x2bc776f8310ee936c080b779a6226309513d0513","displayName":"toast.....","pseudonym":"Esteemed-Emphasis","raw":{"totalTrades":3100,"totalVolume":64377.07,"totalPnl":-20,"realizedPnl":0,"unrealizedPnl":-20,"winRate":0,"openPositions":0,"resolvedBets":68,"uniqueMarkets":67},"calibration":43,"profitability":40,"consistency":91,"discipline":50,"sampleSize":75,"liveEdge":40,"trustScore":48,"trustGrade":"D","trustTier":"RISKY","confidence":{"level":"medium","margin":8,"resolvedBets":68,"description":"D/48 [CI95: D→D, 47-49] (68 resolved bets)","ci95":{"scoreLow":47,"scoreHigh":49,"gradeLow":"D","gradeHigh":"D","iterations":1000,"insufficientData":false}},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.2167738072027357,"totalBets":2,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.2167738072027357,"error":0.2167738072027357},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.3799509110543684,"totalBets":3,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.3799509110543684,"error":0.3799509110543684},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.46405359028063253,"totalBets":37,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.46405359028063253,"error":0.46405359028063253},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.51606852396496,"totalBets":26,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.51606852396496,"error":0.51606852396496}],"brierScore":0.2271,"calibrationError":0.473,"resolvedBets":68,"overconfidenceBias":0.473,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":3.2,"luck":19.7,"edge":-106.91},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.2268,"resolution":0,"uncertainty":0},"brierSkillScore":0.0916,"logLoss":0.6458,"logLossSkill":-80.6725,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":0.4,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":0}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0x2bc776f8310ee936c080b779a6226309513d0513","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1771096573,"firstTxDate":"2026-02-14","walletAgeDays":136,"totalTransactions":2982,"uniqueCounterparties":13,"inboundTxCount":982,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":1996,"totalUsdcIn":1793.1,"totalUsdcOut":1754.04,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":5,"contractInteractions":982,"botScore":10,"washTradingScore":20,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0.98,"medianTxIntervalSec":240,"burstTxCount":94,"provenanceScore":63,"provenanceGrade":"B","flags":["Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2982 txs","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-07-01T12:49:01.471Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":59.06,"pnlVerified":true},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0x2bc776f8310ee936c080b779a6226309513d0513","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":1332.33,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":92,"largestWithdrawal":198.14,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-02-15","fetchedAt":"2026-07-01T12:57:11.305Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 136 days, 2982 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 10/100, wash trading score: 20/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $1,332 in / $0 out across 92 withdrawal tx since 2026-02-15.","3100 total trades across 67 markets.","68 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 47.3% — needs improvement.","Skill: 3/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 20/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: 9.2% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.2268 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.","Log loss: 0.6458 (skill: -8067.3% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events."],"flags":["Overconfidence bias: 0.473","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address","Low win rate: 0%","Concentrated portfolio: 100% in single market"],"greenFlags":["Well-diversified: 67 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns"],"scoredAt":"2026-07-01T12:57:12.784Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance.","antiSybil":{"eligibleForGrade":true,"ageFactor":0.47353693077044495,"reason":"Wallet age 136d → difficulty factor 0.47","ageDaysUsed":136}}