{"wallet":"0x2be04e5cef19bfdbc354c334cd38bbce0c726dee","displayName":"Trader 0x2be04e...","pseudonym":"","raw":{"totalTrades":2109,"totalVolume":3542.85,"totalPnl":840.08,"realizedPnl":0,"unrealizedPnl":840.08,"winRate":0.466,"openPositions":358,"resolvedBets":610,"uniqueMarkets":343},"calibration":51,"profitability":87,"consistency":0,"discipline":99,"sampleSize":100,"liveEdge":46,"trustScore":59,"trustGrade":"C","trustTier":"DEVELOPING","confidence":{"level":"high","margin":3,"resolvedBets":610,"description":"C/59 ± 3 (high confidence, 610 resolved bets)"},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.044891836734693866,"totalBets":98,"correctBets":30,"actualRate":0.30612244897959184,"expectedRate":0.044891836734693866,"error":0.26123061224489796},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.14154137931034483,"totalBets":58,"correctBets":22,"actualRate":0.3793103448275862,"expectedRate":0.14154137931034483,"error":0.23776896551724136},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.24933999999999998,"totalBets":70,"correctBets":28,"actualRate":0.4,"expectedRate":0.24933999999999998,"error":0.15066000000000004},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.35581944444444447,"totalBets":72,"correctBets":26,"actualRate":0.3611111111111111,"expectedRate":0.35581944444444447,"error":0.005291666666666639},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.44704736842105264,"totalBets":76,"correctBets":42,"actualRate":0.5526315789473685,"expectedRate":0.44704736842105264,"error":0.10558421052631584},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5492837837837837,"totalBets":74,"correctBets":52,"actualRate":0.7027027027027027,"expectedRate":0.5492837837837837,"error":0.153418918918919},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.64988,"totalBets":40,"correctBets":18,"actualRate":0.45,"expectedRate":0.64988,"error":0.19988},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.7432705882352938,"totalBets":68,"correctBets":48,"actualRate":0.7058823529411765,"expectedRate":0.7432705882352938,"error":0.03738823529411728},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.863707142857143,"totalBets":28,"correctBets":14,"actualRate":0.5,"expectedRate":0.863707142857143,"error":0.363707142857143},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.9484769230769232,"totalBets":26,"correctBets":4,"actualRate":0.15384615384615385,"expectedRate":0.9484769230769232,"error":0.7946307692307694}],"brierScore":0.2824,"calibrationError":0.1821,"resolvedBets":610,"overconfidenceBias":-0.0464,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":42.1,"luck":100,"edge":5.55},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.059,"resolution":0.025,"uncertainty":0.2488},"brierSkillScore":-0.135,"logLoss":0.8747,"logLossSkill":-0.2663,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":0,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":0}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0x2be04e5cef19bfdbc354c334cd38bbce0c726dee","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1776708038,"firstTxDate":"2026-04-20","walletAgeDays":0,"totalTransactions":2012,"uniqueCounterparties":4,"inboundTxCount":1,"outboundTxCount":11,"totalEthReceived":"124.048970","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"124.048970","usdcTransfers":1999,"totalUsdcIn":3533.61,"totalUsdcOut":2836.77,"protocolsUsed":["USDC","USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":4,"contractInteractions":11,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":20,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0.5,"medianTxIntervalSec":308,"burstTxCount":0,"provenanceScore":46,"provenanceGrade":"C","flags":["Very new wallet: 0 days old — possible sybil"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2012 txs","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-21T16:56:16.880Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":143.24,"pnlVerified":true},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0x2be04e5cef19bfdbc354c334cd38bbce0c726dee","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":0,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":0,"largestWithdrawal":0,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"never","fetchedAt":"2026-04-21T16:57:25.385Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 0 days, 2012 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 20/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $0 in / $0 out across 0 withdrawal tx since never.","2109 total trades across 343 markets.","610 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 18.2% — good.","Skill: 42/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 100/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -13.5% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.0590 RES=0.0250 UNC=0.2488.","Log loss: 0.8747 (skill: -26.6% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events."],"flags":["High luck component: 100/100 — returns may not persist","Brier Skill Score: -13.5% — performing worse than naive baseline","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","On-chain: wallet only 0 days old on Polygon"],"greenFlags":["Net profitable: +$840 total PnL","Well-diversified: 343 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-21T16:57:25.388Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance."}