{"wallet":"0x2ce454368c142a84aa9611c8425783c9124286f2","displayName":"nuzme","pseudonym":"Male-Parachute","raw":{"totalTrades":376,"totalVolume":1361.46,"totalPnl":0,"realizedPnl":0,"unrealizedPnl":0,"winRate":0,"openPositions":0,"resolvedBets":158,"uniqueMarkets":205},"calibration":61,"profitability":40,"consistency":49,"discipline":50,"sampleSize":88,"liveEdge":40,"trustScore":53,"trustGrade":"C","trustTier":"DEVELOPING","confidence":{"level":"medium","margin":8,"resolvedBets":158,"description":"C/53 ± 8 (medium confidence, 158 resolved bets)"},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.03923077115731528,"totalBets":13,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.03923077115731528,"error":0.03923077115731528},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.1400000526857889,"totalBets":5,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.1400000526857889,"error":0.1400000526857889},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.25449428873754276,"totalBets":13,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.25449428873754276,"error":0.25449428873754276},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.34226315373053706,"totalBets":54,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.34226315373053706,"error":0.34226315373053706},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.43858174533362065,"totalBets":38,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.43858174533362065,"error":0.43858174533362065},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5333096398799401,"totalBets":14,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.5333096398799401,"error":0.5333096398799401},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6512239922633944,"totalBets":13,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.6512239922633944,"error":0.6512239922633944},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.730000066700036,"totalBets":2,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.730000066700036,"error":0.730000066700036},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8175207170969658,"totalBets":2,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.8175207170969658,"error":0.8175207170969658},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.9495099639500901,"totalBets":4,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.9495099639500901,"error":0.9495099639500901}],"brierScore":0.1912,"calibrationError":0.3955,"resolvedBets":158,"overconfidenceBias":0.3955,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":12.5,"luck":27.5,"edge":-28.29},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.1905,"resolution":0,"uncertainty":0},"brierSkillScore":0.2353,"logLoss":0.5954,"logLossSkill":-74.2953,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":7,"earlyMoverPct":0.133,"timelinessScore":12}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0x2ce454368c142a84aa9611c8425783c9124286f2","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1773649813,"firstTxDate":"2026-03-16","walletAgeDays":34,"totalTransactions":609,"uniqueCounterparties":0,"inboundTxCount":0,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":608,"totalUsdcIn":761.82,"totalUsdcOut":748.85,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":2,"contractInteractions":0,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0,"medianTxIntervalSec":0,"burstTxCount":0,"provenanceScore":48,"provenanceGrade":"C","flags":["Limited counterparties: only 0 unique addresses","No contract interactions despite activity — possible EOA-only transfers"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 609 txs","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T05:19:54.512Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":null,"pnlVerified":false},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0x2ce454368c142a84aa9611c8425783c9124286f2","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":22.82,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":58,"largestWithdrawal":5.81,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-03-16","fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T05:19:53.988Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 34 days, 609 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $23 in / $0 out across 58 withdrawal tx since 2026-03-16.","376 total trades across 205 markets.","158 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 39.6% — needs improvement.","Skill: 13/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 28/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: 23.5% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.1905 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.","Log loss: 0.5954 (skill: -7429.5% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.","Timeliness: avg entry 7.0 days before resolution, 13% early mover."],"flags":["Overconfidence bias: 0.396","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Low win rate: 0%","Concentrated portfolio: 100% in single market"],"greenFlags":["Strong Brier score: 0.1912","Brier Skill Score: 23.5% better than naive baseline","Well-diversified: 205 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-20T05:19:54.723Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance."}