{"wallet":"0x2ed94d1a460379292d2e3b46f2cf7d94b033f271","displayName":"Hsilverbasher","pseudonym":"Peppery-Digging","raw":{"totalTrades":3100,"totalVolume":10592.18,"totalPnl":-6376.6,"realizedPnl":0,"unrealizedPnl":-6376.6,"winRate":0,"openPositions":0,"resolvedBets":1000,"uniqueMarkets":275},"calibration":4,"profitability":0,"consistency":51,"discipline":50,"sampleSize":100,"liveEdge":40,"trustScore":17,"trustGrade":"F","trustTier":"DANGER","confidence":{"level":"high","margin":3,"resolvedBets":1000,"description":"F/17 [CI95: F→F, 15-18] (1000 resolved bets)","ci95":{"scoreLow":15,"scoreHigh":18,"gradeLow":"F","gradeHigh":"F","iterations":1000,"insufficientData":false}},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.021893650793650785,"totalBets":504,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.021893650793650785,"error":0.021893650793650785},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.3,"totalBets":2,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.3,"error":0.3},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.978110931174084,"totalBets":494,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.978110931174084,"error":0.978110931174084}],"brierScore":0.473,"calibrationError":0.4948,"resolvedBets":1000,"overconfidenceBias":0.4948,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":0.6,"luck":100,"edge":-6.85},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.473,"resolution":0,"uncertainty":0},"brierSkillScore":-0.8921,"logLoss":1.8998,"logLossSkill":-239.2655,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":0,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":0}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0x2ed94d1a460379292d2e3b46f2cf7d94b033f271","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1767854043,"firstTxDate":"2026-01-08","walletAgeDays":177,"totalTransactions":2000,"uniqueCounterparties":0,"inboundTxCount":0,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":2000,"totalUsdcIn":29240.91,"totalUsdcOut":25622.21,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":1,"contractInteractions":0,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0,"medianTxIntervalSec":0,"burstTxCount":0,"provenanceScore":58,"provenanceGrade":"C","flags":["Limited counterparties: only 0 unique addresses","No contract interactions despite activity — possible EOA-only transfers"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2000 txs","Significant USDC flow: $54,863","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-07-04T23:40:48.075Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":9995.3,"pnlVerified":false},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0x2ed94d1a460379292d2e3b46f2cf7d94b033f271","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":20224.77,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":178,"largestWithdrawal":399.11,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-01-12","fetchedAt":"2026-07-04T23:41:34.064Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 177 days, 2000 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $20,225 in / $0 out across 178 withdrawal tx since 2026-01-12.","3100 total trades across 275 markets.","1000 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 49.5% — needs improvement.","Skill: 1/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 100/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -89.2% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.4730 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.","Log loss: 1.8998 (skill: -23926.5% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events."],"flags":["Weak Brier score: 0.473","Overconfidence bias: 0.495","High luck component: 100/100 — returns may not persist","Brier Skill Score: -89.2% — performing worse than naive baseline","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Penny-lottery strategy: 50% of bets at sub-$0.10 — score penalized by 15 pts","Net loss: -$6377 total PnL","Low win rate: 0%","Concentrated portfolio: 100% in single market","PnL divergence: $9995 gap between API and on-chain USDC flows"],"greenFlags":["Well-diversified: 275 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns","On-chain: $20,225 total USDC.e received from Polymarket contracts across 178 tx (Polygon)"],"scoredAt":"2026-07-04T23:41:38.956Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance.","antiSybil":{"eligibleForGrade":true,"ageFactor":0.5489279809260691,"reason":"Wallet age 173d → difficulty factor 0.55","ageDaysUsed":173}}