{"wallet":"0x2f0141261a26e4625641927265b20418e71f15af","displayName":"Trader 0x2f0141...","pseudonym":"","raw":{"totalTrades":555,"totalVolume":3118.18,"totalPnl":-15,"realizedPnl":0,"unrealizedPnl":-15,"winRate":0.155,"openPositions":8,"resolvedBets":317,"uniqueMarkets":379},"calibration":14,"profitability":39,"consistency":13,"discipline":85,"sampleSize":100,"liveEdge":57,"trustScore":38,"trustGrade":"D","trustTier":"RISKY","confidence":{"level":"high","margin":3,"resolvedBets":317,"description":"D/38 ± 3 (high confidence, 317 resolved bets)"},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.16251670892011752,"totalBets":52,"correctBets":6,"actualRate":0.11538461538461539,"expectedRate":0.16251670892011752,"error":0.04713209353550213},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.25332288204725745,"totalBets":48,"correctBets":15,"actualRate":0.3125,"expectedRate":0.25332288204725745,"error":0.05917711795274255},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.33851049905005237,"totalBets":36,"correctBets":10,"actualRate":0.2777777777777778,"expectedRate":0.33851049905005237,"error":0.06073272127227458},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.4481516142191987,"totalBets":45,"correctBets":8,"actualRate":0.17777777777777778,"expectedRate":0.4481516142191987,"error":0.2703738364414209},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5522963280353894,"totalBets":46,"correctBets":5,"actualRate":0.10869565217391304,"expectedRate":0.5522963280353894,"error":0.4436006758614764},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6345730561103473,"totalBets":25,"correctBets":1,"actualRate":0.04,"expectedRate":0.6345730561103473,"error":0.5945730561103473},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.7393524921943382,"totalBets":40,"correctBets":3,"actualRate":0.075,"expectedRate":0.7393524921943382,"error":0.6643524921943382},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8232554735159469,"totalBets":15,"correctBets":1,"actualRate":0.06666666666666667,"expectedRate":0.8232554735159469,"error":0.7565888068492802},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.9516097120377991,"totalBets":10,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.9516097120377991,"error":0.9516097120377991}],"brierScore":0.3024,"calibrationError":0.3229,"resolvedBets":317,"overconfidenceBias":0.305,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":22.7,"luck":46,"edge":-33.06},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.1795,"resolution":0.0091,"uncertainty":0.1307},"brierSkillScore":-1.3143,"logLoss":0.8454,"logLossSkill":-0.9635,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":8.1,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":8}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0x2f0141261a26e4625641927265b20418e71f15af","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1775598921,"firstTxDate":"2026-04-07","walletAgeDays":12,"totalTransactions":1255,"uniqueCounterparties":31,"inboundTxCount":275,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":939,"totalUsdcIn":3206.22,"totalUsdcOut":3206.02,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":43,"contractInteractions":275,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0.05,"medianTxIntervalSec":1448,"burstTxCount":0,"provenanceScore":58,"provenanceGrade":"C","flags":["Young wallet: only 12 days old","Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 1255 txs","Human-like transaction patterns","Diverse trading network: 31 counterparties"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T02:09:53.848Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":15.2,"pnlVerified":true},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 12 days, 1255 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","555 total trades across 379 markets.","317 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 32.3% — needs improvement.","Skill: 23/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 46/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -131.4% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.1795 RES=0.0091 UNC=0.1307.","Log loss: 0.8454 (skill: -96.4% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.","Timeliness: avg entry 8.1 days before resolution, 0% early mover."],"flags":["Overconfidence bias: 0.305","Brier Skill Score: -131.4% — performing worse than naive baseline","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address","Low win rate: 15%"],"greenFlags":["Well-diversified: 379 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns","On-chain: diverse counterparty network"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-20T02:09:58.723Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance."}