{"wallet":"0x3048d65321be3497164cdfc2996f94f98a2e7537","displayName":"BadFallen","pseudonym":"Flashy-Gold","raw":{"totalTrades":3100,"totalVolume":37414.52,"totalPnl":-1050.11,"realizedPnl":0,"unrealizedPnl":-1050.11,"winRate":0.007,"openPositions":4,"resolvedBets":272,"uniqueMarkets":268},"calibration":0,"profitability":34,"consistency":64,"discipline":80,"sampleSize":100,"liveEdge":52,"trustScore":45,"trustGrade":"D","trustTier":"RISKY","confidence":{"level":"high","margin":3,"resolvedBets":272,"description":"D/45 [CI95: D→D, 44-46] (272 resolved bets)","ci95":{"scoreLow":44,"scoreHigh":46,"gradeLow":"INS","gradeHigh":"INS","iterations":1000,"insufficientData":true}},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.06,"totalBets":2,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.06,"error":0.06},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.15810625000000003,"totalBets":32,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.15810625000000003,"error":0.15810625000000003},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.23835294117647066,"totalBets":34,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.23835294117647066,"error":0.23835294117647066},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.33680666666666664,"totalBets":30,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.33680666666666664,"error":0.33680666666666664},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.4566071428571428,"totalBets":28,"correctBets":2,"actualRate":0.07142857142857142,"expectedRate":0.4566071428571428,"error":0.38517857142857137},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5522727272727271,"totalBets":22,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.5522727272727271,"error":0.5522727272727271},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6478875,"totalBets":32,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.6478875,"error":0.6478875},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.7596374999999999,"totalBets":48,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.7596374999999999,"error":0.7596374999999999},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8272149999999996,"totalBets":40,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.8272149999999996,"error":0.8272149999999996},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.9595,"totalBets":4,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.9595,"error":0.9595}],"brierScore":0.3349,"calibrationError":0.5163,"resolvedBets":272,"overconfidenceBias":0.5163,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":0.1,"luck":100,"edge":-35.12},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.3279,"resolution":0.0005,"uncertainty":0.0073},"brierSkillScore":-44.8833,"logLoss":0.911,"logLossSkill":-19.9669,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":0,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":0}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0x3048d65321be3497164cdfc2996f94f98a2e7537","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1781053843,"firstTxDate":"2026-06-10","walletAgeDays":21,"totalTransactions":2000,"uniqueCounterparties":0,"inboundTxCount":0,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":2,"totalUsdcIn":350,"totalUsdcOut":350,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":2,"contractInteractions":0,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0,"medianTxIntervalSec":0,"burstTxCount":0,"provenanceScore":38,"provenanceGrade":"D","flags":["Young wallet: only 21 days old","Limited counterparties: only 0 unique addresses","No contract interactions despite activity — possible EOA-only transfers"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2000 txs","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-07-01T07:19:23.765Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":1050.11,"pnlVerified":true},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0x3048d65321be3497164cdfc2996f94f98a2e7537","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":0,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":0,"largestWithdrawal":0,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"never","fetchedAt":"2026-07-01T07:21:43.936Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 21 days, 2000 txs, provenance grade D. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $0 in / $0 out across 0 withdrawal tx since never.","3100 total trades across 268 markets.","272 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 51.6% — needs improvement.","Skill: 0/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 100/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -4488.3% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.3279 RES=0.0005 UNC=0.0073.","Log loss: 0.9110 (skill: -1996.7% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events."],"flags":["Overconfidence bias: 0.516","High luck component: 100/100 — returns may not persist","Brier Skill Score: -4488.3% — performing worse than naive baseline","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Net loss: -$1050 total PnL","Low win rate: 1%","young_wallet: Wallet is only 0 days old — force-INS (threshold 30d)"],"greenFlags":["Well-diversified: 268 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns"],"scoredAt":"2026-07-01T07:21:44.591Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance.","antiSybil":{"eligibleForGrade":false,"ageFactor":0,"reason":"Wallet is only 0 days old — force-INS (threshold 30d)","ageDaysUsed":0}}