{"wallet":"0x327cebf7c28ceea193c4ec23e361191bce2972bb","displayName":"Hoarse-Denominator-Overcoat","pseudonym":"Hoarse-Denominator-Overcoat","raw":{"totalTrades":2947,"totalVolume":7855.22,"totalPnl":255.46,"realizedPnl":0,"unrealizedPnl":255.46,"winRate":0,"openPositions":4,"resolvedBets":493,"uniqueMarkets":997},"calibration":5,"profitability":47,"consistency":61,"discipline":85,"sampleSize":100,"liveEdge":100,"trustScore":53,"trustGrade":"C","trustTier":"DEVELOPING","confidence":{"level":"high","margin":3,"resolvedBets":493,"description":"C/53 ± 3 (high confidence, 493 resolved bets)"},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.05249999999999999,"totalBets":4,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.05249999999999999,"error":0.05249999999999999},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.15321168204185684,"totalBets":7,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.15321168204185684,"error":0.15321168204185684},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.265508775782697,"totalBets":13,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.265508775782697,"error":0.265508775782697},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.3564106044739256,"totalBets":39,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.3564106044739256,"error":0.3564106044739256},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.4576572147803137,"totalBets":62,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.4576572147803137,"error":0.4576572147803137},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5536254745914054,"totalBets":75,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.5536254745914054,"error":0.5536254745914054},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.648217116208243,"totalBets":81,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.648217116208243,"error":0.648217116208243},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.7417004090192452,"totalBets":84,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.7417004090192452,"error":0.7417004090192452},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8535576274869187,"totalBets":73,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.8535576274869187,"error":0.8535576274869187},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.9531239998066409,"totalBets":55,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.9531239998066409,"error":0.9531239998066409}],"brierScore":0.458,"calibrationError":0.6452,"resolvedBets":493,"overconfidenceBias":0.6452,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":0,"luck":20.9,"edge":-38.2},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.4572,"resolution":0,"uncertainty":0},"brierSkillScore":-0.8321,"logLoss":1.3098,"logLossSkill":-164.6494,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":3.9,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":4}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0x327cebf7c28ceea193c4ec23e361191bce2972bb","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1775037391,"firstTxDate":"2026-04-01","walletAgeDays":18,"totalTransactions":2296,"uniqueCounterparties":4,"inboundTxCount":296,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":1998,"totalUsdcIn":5644.54,"totalUsdcOut":5249.45,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":4,"contractInteractions":296,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":80,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0.85,"medianTxIntervalSec":1498,"burstTxCount":0,"provenanceScore":53,"provenanceGrade":"C","flags":["Young wallet: only 18 days old","Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction","Wash trading signal: 85% of txs with single counterparty"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2296 txs","Significant USDC flow: $10,894","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T03:15:23.818Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":139.63,"pnlVerified":true},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0x327cebf7c28ceea193c4ec23e361191bce2972bb","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":4833.71,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":194,"largestWithdrawal":100.31,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-04-01","fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T03:15:24.019Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 18 days, 2296 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 80/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $4,834 in / $0 out across 194 withdrawal tx since 2026-04-01.","2947 total trades across 997 markets.","493 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 64.5% — needs improvement.","Skill: 0/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 21/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -83.2% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.4572 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.","Log loss: 1.3098 (skill: -16464.9% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.","Timeliness: avg entry 3.9 days before resolution, 0% early mover."],"flags":["Weak Brier score: 0.458","Overconfidence bias: 0.645","Brier Skill Score: -83.2% — performing worse than naive baseline","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address","Low win rate: 0%","On-chain: wash trading signal — 85% of txs with single counterparty"],"greenFlags":["Strong live edge: 4 open positions trending profitable","Net profitable: +$255 total PnL","Well-diversified: 997 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-20T03:15:32.021Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance."}