{"wallet":"0x3561190a250fbf7cede1a83db23006c33eebf1b7","displayName":"001nrt","pseudonym":"Grotesque-Campaigning","raw":{"totalTrades":3100,"totalVolume":316940.04,"totalPnl":454246.76,"realizedPnl":1035371.6,"unrealizedPnl":-581124.84,"winRate":0.002,"openPositions":0,"resolvedBets":1000,"uniqueMarkets":260},"calibration":33,"profitability":100,"consistency":100,"discipline":50,"sampleSize":100,"liveEdge":40,"trustScore":36,"trustGrade":"D","trustTier":"RISKY","confidence":{"level":"high","margin":3,"resolvedBets":1000,"description":"D/36 [CI95: D→D, 36-36] (1000 resolved bets)","ci95":{"scoreLow":36,"scoreHigh":36,"gradeLow":"INS","gradeHigh":"INS","iterations":1000,"insufficientData":true}},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.05801912087912065,"totalBets":910,"correctBets":2,"actualRate":0.002197802197802198,"expectedRate":0.05801912087912065,"error":0.055821318681318455},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.15181250000000002,"totalBets":16,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.15181250000000002,"error":0.15181250000000002},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.24526153846153848,"totalBets":26,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.24526153846153848,"error":0.24526153846153848},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.3522,"totalBets":8,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.3522,"error":0.3522},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.44143333333333334,"totalBets":6,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.44143333333333334,"error":0.44143333333333334},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5320833333333334,"totalBets":12,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.5320833333333334,"error":0.5320833333333334},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6335,"totalBets":2,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.6335,"error":0.6335},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.7542333333333332,"totalBets":6,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.7542333333333332,"error":0.7542333333333332},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8159,"totalBets":2,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.8159,"error":0.8159},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.9575666666666668,"totalBets":12,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.9575666666666668,"error":0.9575666666666668}],"brierScore":0.029,"calibrationError":0.0904,"resolvedBets":1000,"overconfidenceBias":0.0904,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":49.2,"luck":31.6,"edge":-80.82},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.0269,"resolution":0,"uncertainty":0.002},"brierSkillScore":-13.5076,"logLoss":0.1388,"logLossSkill":-8.6209,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":0,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":0}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0x3561190a250fbf7cede1a83db23006c33eebf1b7","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1781339071,"firstTxDate":"2026-06-13","walletAgeDays":21,"totalTransactions":2000,"uniqueCounterparties":0,"inboundTxCount":0,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":0,"totalUsdcIn":0,"totalUsdcOut":0,"protocolsUsed":[],"uniqueContractsInteracted":1,"contractInteractions":0,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0,"medianTxIntervalSec":0,"burstTxCount":0,"provenanceScore":30,"provenanceGrade":"D","flags":["Young wallet: only 21 days old","Limited counterparties: only 0 unique addresses","No contract interactions despite activity — possible EOA-only transfers"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2000 txs","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-07-04T23:22:11.664Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":null,"pnlVerified":false},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0x3561190a250fbf7cede1a83db23006c33eebf1b7","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":0,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":0,"largestWithdrawal":0,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"never","fetchedAt":"2026-07-04T23:25:54.070Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 21 days, 2000 txs, provenance grade D. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $0 in / $0 out across 0 withdrawal tx since never.","3100 total trades across 260 markets.","1000 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 9.0% — excellent.","Skill: 49/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 32/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -1350.8% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.0269 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0020.","Log loss: 0.1388 (skill: -862.1% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events."],"flags":["Brier Skill Score: -1350.8% — performing worse than naive baseline","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Penny-lottery strategy: 91% of bets at sub-$0.10 — score penalized by 30 pts","Low win rate: 0%","Concentrated portfolio: 100% in single market","young_wallet: Wallet is only 0 days old — force-INS (threshold 30d)"],"greenFlags":["Strong Brier score: 0.029","Net profitable: +$454247 total PnL","Well-diversified: 260 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns"],"scoredAt":"2026-07-04T23:25:55.663Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance.","antiSybil":{"eligibleForGrade":false,"ageFactor":0,"reason":"Wallet is only 0 days old — force-INS (threshold 30d)","ageDaysUsed":0}}