{"wallet":"0x35e4bee69e36dbd95e7c975cc185298d6545292c","displayName":"neo67","pseudonym":"Essential-Drug","raw":{"totalTrades":2020,"totalVolume":10253.01,"totalPnl":0,"realizedPnl":0,"unrealizedPnl":0,"winRate":0,"openPositions":0,"resolvedBets":171,"uniqueMarkets":189},"calibration":29,"profitability":40,"consistency":68,"discipline":50,"sampleSize":88,"liveEdge":40,"trustScore":42,"trustGrade":"D","trustTier":"RISKY","confidence":{"level":"medium","margin":8,"resolvedBets":171,"description":"D/42 ± 8 (medium confidence, 171 resolved bets)"},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.022652656754586165,"totalBets":1,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.022652656754586165,"error":0.022652656754586165},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.16863726093453976,"totalBets":6,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.16863726093453976,"error":0.16863726093453976},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.2513838322187941,"totalBets":7,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.2513838322187941,"error":0.2513838322187941},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.3678903130251055,"totalBets":17,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.3678903130251055,"error":0.3678903130251055},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.45351903619627815,"totalBets":62,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.45351903619627815,"error":0.45351903619627815},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5442134307593294,"totalBets":45,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.5442134307593294,"error":0.5442134307593294},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6377202166041831,"totalBets":24,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.6377202166041831,"error":0.6377202166041831},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.7555263369878356,"totalBets":6,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.7555263369878356,"error":0.7555263369878356},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.87,"totalBets":1,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.87,"error":0.87},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.99,"totalBets":2,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.99,"error":0.99}],"brierScore":0.2633,"calibrationError":0.4932,"resolvedBets":171,"overconfidenceBias":0.4932,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":0.8,"luck":34.9,"edge":-110.91},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.2626,"resolution":0,"uncertainty":0},"brierSkillScore":-0.0533,"logLoss":0.7494,"logLossSkill":-93.779,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":15.9,"earlyMoverPct":0.398,"timelinessScore":32}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0x35e4bee69e36dbd95e7c975cc185298d6545292c","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1767014789,"firstTxDate":"2025-12-29","walletAgeDays":113,"totalTransactions":2271,"uniqueCounterparties":31,"inboundTxCount":271,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":1995,"totalUsdcIn":6892.87,"totalUsdcOut":6161.73,"protocolsUsed":["USDC","USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":8,"contractInteractions":271,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0.12,"medianTxIntervalSec":816,"burstTxCount":10,"provenanceScore":76,"provenanceGrade":"B","flags":["Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2271 txs","Significant USDC flow: $13,055","Human-like transaction patterns","Diverse trading network: 31 counterparties"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-21T16:48:32.887Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":null,"pnlVerified":false},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0x35e4bee69e36dbd95e7c975cc185298d6545292c","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":5638.05,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":115,"largestWithdrawal":580.68,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-02-27","fetchedAt":"2026-04-21T16:48:32.832Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 113 days, 2271 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $5,638 in / $0 out across 115 withdrawal tx since 2026-02-27.","2020 total trades across 189 markets.","171 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 49.3% — needs improvement.","Skill: 1/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 35/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -5.3% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.2626 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.","Log loss: 0.7494 (skill: -9377.9% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.","Timeliness: avg entry 15.9 days before resolution, 40% early mover."],"flags":["Overconfidence bias: 0.493","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address","Low win rate: 0%","Concentrated portfolio: 100% in single market"],"greenFlags":["Well-diversified: 189 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns","On-chain: diverse counterparty network"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-21T16:48:36.876Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance."}