{"wallet":"0x36309c6e27fdce6f03ba86f514a6de4afe873f8f","displayName":"JAR824","pseudonym":"Funny-Bat","raw":{"totalTrades":3100,"totalVolume":11306.43,"totalPnl":-6324.94,"realizedPnl":0,"unrealizedPnl":-6324.94,"winRate":0,"openPositions":2,"resolvedBets":998,"uniqueMarkets":573},"calibration":19,"profitability":0,"consistency":67,"discipline":75,"sampleSize":100,"liveEdge":43,"trustScore":36,"trustGrade":"D","trustTier":"RISKY","confidence":{"level":"high","margin":3,"resolvedBets":998,"description":"D/36 [CI95: D→D, 35-37] (998 resolved bets)","ci95":{"scoreLow":35,"scoreHigh":37,"gradeLow":"D","gradeHigh":"D","iterations":1000,"insufficientData":false}},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.04157624999999994,"totalBets":160,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.04157624999999994,"error":0.04157624999999994},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.14961904761904762,"totalBets":84,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.14961904761904762,"error":0.14961904761904762},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.25299736842105264,"totalBets":76,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.25299736842105264,"error":0.25299736842105264},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.35722653061224485,"totalBets":98,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.35722653061224485,"error":0.35722653061224485},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.4408756756756756,"totalBets":74,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.4408756756756756,"error":0.4408756756756756},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5454050847457627,"totalBets":118,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.5454050847457627,"error":0.5454050847457627},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.645759574468085,"totalBets":94,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.645759574468085,"error":0.645759574468085},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.7447151515151514,"totalBets":66,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.7447151515151514,"error":0.7447151515151514},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8427785714285717,"totalBets":56,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.8427785714285717,"error":0.8427785714285717},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.9597267441860462,"totalBets":172,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.9597267441860462,"error":0.9597267441860462}],"brierScore":0.3445,"calibrationError":0.4935,"resolvedBets":998,"overconfidenceBias":0.4935,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":0.8,"luck":45,"edge":-60.43},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.3437,"resolution":0,"uncertainty":0},"brierSkillScore":-0.3782,"logLoss":1.131,"logLossSkill":-142.0273,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":0,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":0}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0x36309c6e27fdce6f03ba86f514a6de4afe873f8f","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1772859213,"firstTxDate":"2026-03-07","walletAgeDays":57,"totalTransactions":2973,"uniqueCounterparties":101,"inboundTxCount":973,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"29.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"29.000000","usdcTransfers":1990,"totalUsdcIn":10546.97,"totalUsdcOut":9838.68,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":12,"contractInteractions":972,"botScore":10,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0.04,"medianTxIntervalSec":608,"burstTxCount":75,"provenanceScore":73,"provenanceGrade":"B","flags":["Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2973 txs","Diverse counterparties: 101 unique addresses","Significant USDC flow: $20,386","Human-like transaction patterns","Diverse trading network: 101 counterparties"],"fetchedAt":"2026-05-03T09:19:38.835Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":7033.23,"pnlVerified":false},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0x36309c6e27fdce6f03ba86f514a6de4afe873f8f","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":7725.94,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":236,"largestWithdrawal":282.69,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-03-08","fetchedAt":"2026-05-03T09:19:38.920Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 57 days, 2973 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 10/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $7,726 in / $0 out across 236 withdrawal tx since 2026-03-08.","3100 total trades across 573 markets.","998 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 49.4% — needs improvement.","Skill: 1/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 45/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -37.8% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.3437 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.","Log loss: 1.1310 (skill: -14202.7% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events."],"flags":["Overconfidence bias: 0.493","Brier Skill Score: -37.8% — performing worse than naive baseline","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address","Net loss: -$6325 total PnL","Low win rate: 0%","PnL divergence: $7033 gap between API and on-chain USDC flows"],"greenFlags":["Well-diversified: 573 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns","On-chain: diverse counterparty network"],"scoredAt":"2026-05-03T09:19:45.046Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance.","antiSybil":{"eligibleForGrade":true,"ageFactor":0.18990126237696162,"reason":"Wallet age 55d → difficulty factor 0.19","ageDaysUsed":55}}