{"wallet":"0x36901eb0f21519cc9055662a6d2483e96da1e16f","displayName":"melchior1248","pseudonym":"Deserted-Bitter","raw":{"totalTrades":3100,"totalVolume":24736.07,"totalPnl":569078.67,"realizedPnl":624136.45,"unrealizedPnl":-55057.78,"winRate":0.007,"openPositions":94,"resolvedBets":906,"uniqueMarkets":275},"calibration":65,"profitability":100,"consistency":100,"discipline":97,"sampleSize":100,"liveEdge":83,"trustScore":57,"trustGrade":"C","trustTier":"DEVELOPING","confidence":{"level":"high","margin":3,"resolvedBets":906,"description":"C/57 [CI95: C→C, 57-57] (906 resolved bets)","ci95":{"scoreLow":57,"scoreHigh":57,"gradeLow":"C","gradeHigh":"C","iterations":1000,"insufficientData":false}},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.02393900709219883,"totalBets":846,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.02393900709219883,"error":0.02393900709219883},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.10816842105263161,"totalBets":38,"correctBets":2,"actualRate":0.05263157894736842,"expectedRate":0.10816842105263161,"error":0.05553684210526319},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.2381,"totalBets":2,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.2381,"error":0.2381},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.3691,"totalBets":2,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.3691,"error":0.3691},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.4572,"totalBets":2,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.4572,"error":0.4572},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5,"totalBets":12,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.5,"error":0.5},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.9209,"totalBets":4,"correctBets":4,"actualRate":1,"expectedRate":0.9209,"error":0.07909999999999995}],"brierScore":0.0072,"calibrationError":0.034,"resolvedBets":906,"overconfidenceBias":0.0333,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":56.6,"luck":65.1,"edge":-95.88},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.0049,"resolution":0.0045,"uncertainty":0.0066},"brierSkillScore":-0.0925,"logLoss":0.0449,"logLossSkill":-0.1264,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":0,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":0}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0x36901eb0f21519cc9055662a6d2483e96da1e16f","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1767909538,"firstTxDate":"2026-01-08","walletAgeDays":127,"totalTransactions":2000,"uniqueCounterparties":0,"inboundTxCount":0,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":2000,"totalUsdcIn":53850.45,"totalUsdcOut":44604.04,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":1,"contractInteractions":0,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0,"medianTxIntervalSec":0,"burstTxCount":0,"provenanceScore":58,"provenanceGrade":"C","flags":["Limited counterparties: only 0 unique addresses","No contract interactions despite activity — possible EOA-only transfers"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2000 txs","Significant USDC flow: $98,454","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-05-16T21:21:51.060Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":559832.26,"pnlVerified":false},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0x36901eb0f21519cc9055662a6d2483e96da1e16f","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":11871.47,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":35610,"withdrawalTxCount":78,"largestWithdrawal":1048.22,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-01-10","fetchedAt":"2026-05-16T21:28:21.836Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 127 days, 2000 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $11,871 in / $35,610 out across 78 withdrawal tx since 2026-01-10.","3100 total trades across 275 markets.","906 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 3.4% — excellent.","Skill: 57/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 65/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -9.3% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.0049 RES=0.0045 UNC=0.0066.","Log loss: 0.0449 (skill: -12.6% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events."],"flags":["Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Penny-lottery strategy: 93% of bets at sub-$0.10 — score penalized by 30 pts","Low win rate: 1%","PnL divergence: $559832 gap between API and on-chain USDC flows"],"greenFlags":["Strong Brier score: 0.0072","Strong live edge: 94 open positions trending profitable","Net profitable: +$569079 total PnL","Well-diversified: 275 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns","On-chain: $11,871 total USDC.e received from Polymarket contracts across 78 tx (Polygon)"],"scoredAt":"2026-05-16T21:28:28.472Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance.","antiSybil":{"eligibleForGrade":true,"ageFactor":0.4445965349061772,"reason":"Wallet age 124d → difficulty factor 0.44","ageDaysUsed":124}}