{"wallet":"0x37c1874a60d348903594a96703e0507c518fc53a","displayName":"CemeterySun","pseudonym":"Pale-Bend","raw":{"totalTrades":3100,"totalVolume":3172093.58,"totalPnl":-41969722.28,"realizedPnl":0,"unrealizedPnl":-41969722.28,"winRate":0.01,"openPositions":0,"resolvedBets":1000,"uniqueMarkets":540},"calibration":2,"profitability":0,"consistency":96,"discipline":50,"sampleSize":100,"liveEdge":40,"trustScore":38,"trustGrade":"D","trustTier":"RISKY","confidence":{"level":"high","margin":3,"resolvedBets":1000,"description":"D/38 [CI95: D→D, 38-38] (1000 resolved bets)","ci95":{"scoreLow":38,"scoreHigh":38,"gradeLow":"D","gradeHigh":"D","iterations":1000,"insufficientData":false}},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.04545,"totalBets":4,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.04545,"error":0.04545},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.15766249999999998,"totalBets":16,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.15766249999999998,"error":0.15766249999999998},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.25763846153846154,"totalBets":26,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.25763846153846154,"error":0.25763846153846154},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.356662711864407,"totalBets":118,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.356662711864407,"error":0.356662711864407},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.4610637362637362,"totalBets":364,"correctBets":4,"actualRate":0.01098901098901099,"expectedRate":0.4610637362637362,"error":0.4500747252747252},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5317038647342999,"totalBets":414,"correctBets":6,"actualRate":0.014492753623188406,"expectedRate":0.5317038647342999,"error":0.5172111111111115},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6357363636363637,"totalBets":44,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.6357363636363637,"error":0.6357363636363637},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.7561,"totalBets":8,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.7561,"error":0.7561},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8525,"totalBets":4,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.8525,"error":0.8525},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.9501,"totalBets":2,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.9501,"error":0.9501}],"brierScore":0.2392,"calibrationError":0.4688,"resolvedBets":1000,"overconfidenceBias":0.4688,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":3.8,"luck":44.8,"edge":-92.94},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.2287,"resolution":0,"uncertainty":0.0099},"brierSkillScore":-23.1599,"logLoss":0.6723,"logLossSkill":-11.0054,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":0,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":0}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0x37c1874a60d348903594a96703e0507c518fc53a","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1772320557,"firstTxDate":"2026-02-28","walletAgeDays":54,"totalTransactions":2000,"uniqueCounterparties":0,"inboundTxCount":0,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":1999,"totalUsdcIn":1999599.98,"totalUsdcOut":1511108.65,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":2,"contractInteractions":0,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0,"medianTxIntervalSec":0,"burstTxCount":0,"provenanceScore":53,"provenanceGrade":"C","flags":["Limited counterparties: only 0 unique addresses","No contract interactions despite activity — possible EOA-only transfers"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2000 txs","Significant USDC flow: $3,510,709","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-24T09:01:49.133Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":42458213.61,"pnlVerified":false},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0x37c1874a60d348903594a96703e0507c518fc53a","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":0,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":0,"largestWithdrawal":0,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"never","fetchedAt":"2026-04-24T09:01:47.821Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 54 days, 2000 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $0 in / $0 out across 0 withdrawal tx since never.","3100 total trades across 540 markets.","1000 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 46.9% — needs improvement.","Skill: 4/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 45/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -2316.0% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.2287 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0099.","Log loss: 0.6723 (skill: -1100.5% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events."],"flags":["Overconfidence bias: 0.469","Brier Skill Score: -2316.0% — performing worse than naive baseline","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Net loss: -$41969722 total PnL","Low win rate: 1%","Concentrated portfolio: 100% in single market","PnL divergence: $42458214 gap between API and on-chain USDC flows"],"greenFlags":["Well-diversified: 540 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-24T09:01:49.191Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance.","antiSybil":{"eligibleForGrade":true,"ageFactor":0.12703149265562116,"reason":"Wallet age 45d → difficulty factor 0.13","ageDaysUsed":45}}