{"wallet":"0x3a062e447e5f3f60be26f8ac4d84149cb233ea5e","displayName":"unicornradio","pseudonym":"Blissful-Taxpayer","raw":{"totalTrades":3100,"totalVolume":8021.58,"totalPnl":-30750.22,"realizedPnl":-6691.17,"unrealizedPnl":-24059.05,"winRate":0,"openPositions":0,"resolvedBets":1000,"uniqueMarkets":210},"calibration":27,"profitability":0,"consistency":95,"discipline":50,"sampleSize":100,"liveEdge":40,"trustScore":39,"trustGrade":"D","trustTier":"RISKY","confidence":{"level":"high","margin":3,"resolvedBets":1000,"description":"D/39 [CI95: D→D, 38-40] (1000 resolved bets)","ci95":{"scoreLow":38,"scoreHigh":40,"gradeLow":"D","gradeHigh":"D","iterations":1000,"insufficientData":false}},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.028145833333333353,"totalBets":48,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.028145833333333353,"error":0.028145833333333353},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.16869,"totalBets":20,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.16869,"error":0.16869},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.2500545454545456,"totalBets":44,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.2500545454545456,"error":0.2500545454545456},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.3566175,"totalBets":240,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.3566175,"error":0.3566175},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.4534840000000001,"totalBets":200,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.4534840000000001,"error":0.4534840000000001},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5454986486486486,"totalBets":148,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.5454986486486486,"error":0.5454986486486486},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.643263095238095,"totalBets":168,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.643263095238095,"error":0.643263095238095},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.7365558823529412,"totalBets":68,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.7365558823529412,"error":0.7365558823529412},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8493583333333333,"totalBets":24,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.8493583333333333,"error":0.8493583333333333},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.962995,"totalBets":40,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.962995,"error":0.962995}],"brierScore":0.2807,"calibrationError":0.4898,"resolvedBets":1000,"overconfidenceBias":0.4898,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":1.2,"luck":31.6,"edge":-107.48},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.2799,"resolution":0,"uncertainty":0},"brierSkillScore":-0.1227,"logLoss":0.8152,"logLossSkill":-102.0994,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":0,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":0}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0x3a062e447e5f3f60be26f8ac4d84149cb233ea5e","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1772275225,"firstTxDate":"2026-02-28","walletAgeDays":54,"totalTransactions":2905,"uniqueCounterparties":18,"inboundTxCount":905,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":1999,"totalUsdcIn":120580.63,"totalUsdcOut":118063.71,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":3,"contractInteractions":905,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":20,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0.97,"medianTxIntervalSec":306,"burstTxCount":25,"provenanceScore":63,"provenanceGrade":"B","flags":["Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2905 txs","Significant USDC flow: $238,644","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-24T08:37:10.921Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":33267.14,"pnlVerified":false},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0x3a062e447e5f3f60be26f8ac4d84149cb233ea5e","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":113994.09,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":836,"largestWithdrawal":1225.02,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-02-28","fetchedAt":"2026-04-24T08:37:10.833Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 54 days, 2905 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 20/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $113,994 in / $0 out across 836 withdrawal tx since 2026-02-28.","3100 total trades across 210 markets.","1000 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 49.0% — needs improvement.","Skill: 1/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 32/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -12.3% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.2799 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.","Log loss: 0.8152 (skill: -10209.9% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events."],"flags":["Overconfidence bias: 0.490","Brier Skill Score: -12.3% — performing worse than naive baseline","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address","Net loss: -$30750 total PnL","Low win rate: 0%","Concentrated portfolio: 100% in single market","PnL divergence: $33267 gap between API and on-chain USDC flows"],"greenFlags":["Well-diversified: 210 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns","On-chain: $113,994 total USDC.e received from Polymarket contracts across 836 tx (Polygon)"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-24T08:37:17.228Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance.","antiSybil":{"eligibleForGrade":true,"ageFactor":0.17829629825718363,"reason":"Wallet age 53d → difficulty factor 0.18","ageDaysUsed":53}}