{"wallet":"0x3a2c067d262e5b2b2100251359e4c7b877283d80","displayName":"PaulaLolik","pseudonym":"Esteemed-Foal","raw":{"totalTrades":3100,"totalVolume":14168.58,"totalPnl":11975.67,"realizedPnl":12465.22,"unrealizedPnl":-489.55,"winRate":0.108,"openPositions":324,"resolvedBets":668,"uniqueMarkets":398},"calibration":28,"profitability":100,"consistency":100,"discipline":100,"sampleSize":100,"liveEdge":52,"trustScore":52,"trustGrade":"C","trustTier":"DEVELOPING","confidence":{"level":"high","margin":3,"resolvedBets":668,"description":"C/52 ± 3 (high confidence, 668 resolved bets)"},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.04609253112033192,"totalBets":482,"correctBets":52,"actualRate":0.1078838174273859,"expectedRate":0.04609253112033192,"error":0.06179128630705398},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.14039999999999994,"totalBets":72,"correctBets":12,"actualRate":0.16666666666666666,"expectedRate":0.14039999999999994,"error":0.026266666666666716},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.23118333333333338,"totalBets":12,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.23118333333333338,"error":0.23118333333333338},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.33664000000000005,"totalBets":10,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.33664000000000005,"error":0.33664000000000005},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.4349,"totalBets":2,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.4349,"error":0.4349},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5403,"totalBets":2,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.5403,"error":0.5403},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6618333333333334,"totalBets":6,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.6618333333333334,"error":0.6618333333333334},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.7883,"totalBets":2,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.7883,"error":0.7883},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8683466666666668,"totalBets":30,"correctBets":2,"actualRate":0.06666666666666667,"expectedRate":0.8683466666666668,"error":0.8016800000000002},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.9399200000000002,"totalBets":50,"correctBets":6,"actualRate":0.12,"expectedRate":0.9399200000000002,"error":0.8199200000000002}],"brierScore":0.1894,"calibrationError":0.1652,"resolvedBets":668,"overconfidenceBias":0.0704,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":40.3,"luck":32.6,"edge":-26.07},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.0919,"resolution":0.0011,"uncertainty":0.0962},"brierSkillScore":-0.9698,"logLoss":0.6577,"logLossSkill":-0.924,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":0,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":0}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0x3a2c067d262e5b2b2100251359e4c7b877283d80","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1775582633,"firstTxDate":"2026-04-07","walletAgeDays":12,"totalTransactions":2982,"uniqueCounterparties":5,"inboundTxCount":982,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":1998,"totalUsdcIn":7019.14,"totalUsdcOut":4963.67,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":4,"contractInteractions":982,"botScore":50,"washTradingScore":50,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0.99,"medianTxIntervalSec":8,"burstTxCount":1,"provenanceScore":53,"provenanceGrade":"C","flags":["Young wallet: only 12 days old","Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction","Possible automated trading: 1 burst txs","Counterparty concentration: 99% with top address"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2982 txs","Significant USDC flow: $11,983"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T03:42:15.746Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":9920.2,"pnlVerified":false},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0x3a2c067d262e5b2b2100251359e4c7b877283d80","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":0,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":0,"largestWithdrawal":0,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"never","fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T03:42:19.516Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 12 days, 2982 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 50/100, wash trading score: 50/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $0 in / $0 out across 0 withdrawal tx since never.","3100 total trades across 398 markets.","668 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 16.5% — good.","Skill: 40/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 33/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -97.0% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.0919 RES=0.0011 UNC=0.0962.","Log loss: 0.6577 (skill: -92.4% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events."],"flags":["Brier Skill Score: -97.0% — performing worse than naive baseline","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Penny-lottery strategy: 72% of bets at sub-$0.10 — score penalized by 15 pts","Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address","Low win rate: 11%","PnL divergence: $9920 gap between API and on-chain USDC flows","On-chain: possible automated trading (bot score: 50)"],"greenFlags":["Strong Brier score: 0.1894","Net profitable: +$11976 total PnL","Well-diversified: 398 unique markets"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-20T03:42:22.340Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance."}