{"wallet":"0x3c58ef422754ff22c7e806336feba0064d8b776b","displayName":"antsaslyku","pseudonym":"Periodic-Scrap","raw":{"totalTrades":3100,"totalVolume":23401.11,"totalPnl":-81984.65,"realizedPnl":0,"unrealizedPnl":-81984.65,"winRate":0.006,"openPositions":0,"resolvedBets":1000,"uniqueMarkets":627},"calibration":0,"profitability":0,"consistency":71,"discipline":50,"sampleSize":100,"liveEdge":40,"trustScore":29,"trustGrade":"F","trustTier":"DANGER","confidence":{"level":"high","margin":3,"resolvedBets":1000,"description":"F/29 [CI95: F→F, 28-30] (1000 resolved bets)","ci95":{"scoreLow":28,"scoreHigh":30,"gradeLow":"F","gradeHigh":"F","iterations":1000,"insufficientData":false}},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.06297619047619046,"totalBets":42,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.06297619047619046,"error":0.06297619047619046},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.15535319148936166,"totalBets":94,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.15535319148936166,"error":0.15535319148936166},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.2501257142857143,"totalBets":70,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.2501257142857143,"error":0.2501257142857143},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.3531377358490566,"totalBets":106,"correctBets":2,"actualRate":0.018867924528301886,"expectedRate":0.3531377358490566,"error":0.33426981132075473},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.4544435897435896,"totalBets":156,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.4544435897435896,"error":0.4544435897435896},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5450249999999999,"totalBets":144,"correctBets":2,"actualRate":0.013888888888888888,"expectedRate":0.5450249999999999,"error":0.531136111111111},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6494928571428572,"totalBets":140,"correctBets":2,"actualRate":0.014285714285714285,"expectedRate":0.6494928571428572,"error":0.635207142857143},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.747766666666667,"totalBets":96,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.747766666666667,"error":0.747766666666667},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8352234042553193,"totalBets":94,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.8352234042553193,"error":0.8352234042553193},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.9433206896551726,"totalBets":58,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.9433206896551726,"error":0.9433206896551726}],"brierScore":0.3255,"calibrationError":0.5115,"resolvedBets":1000,"overconfidenceBias":0.5115,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":0,"luck":20.9,"edge":-59.76},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.3189,"resolution":0.0001,"uncertainty":0.006},"brierSkillScore":-53.573,"logLoss":0.9172,"logLossSkill":-24.0072,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":0,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":0}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0x3c58ef422754ff22c7e806336feba0064d8b776b","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1777036726,"firstTxDate":"2026-04-24","walletAgeDays":54,"totalTransactions":2075,"uniqueCounterparties":52,"inboundTxCount":75,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":1999,"totalUsdcIn":19042.39,"totalUsdcOut":17991.97,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":3,"contractInteractions":75,"botScore":30,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0.04,"medianTxIntervalSec":2076,"burstTxCount":23,"provenanceScore":73,"provenanceGrade":"B","flags":["Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction","Possible automated trading: 23 burst txs"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2075 txs","Diverse counterparties: 52 unique addresses","Significant USDC flow: $37,034","Diverse trading network: 52 counterparties"],"fetchedAt":"2026-06-18T09:45:05.543Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":83035.07,"pnlVerified":false},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0x3c58ef422754ff22c7e806336feba0064d8b776b","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":0,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":0,"largestWithdrawal":0,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"never","fetchedAt":"2026-06-18T09:46:49.971Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 54 days, 2075 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 30/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $0 in / $0 out across 0 withdrawal tx since never.","3100 total trades across 627 markets.","1000 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 51.1% — needs improvement.","Skill: 0/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 21/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -5357.3% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.3189 RES=0.0001 UNC=0.0060.","Log loss: 0.9172 (skill: -2400.7% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events."],"flags":["Overconfidence bias: 0.511","Brier Skill Score: -5357.3% — performing worse than naive baseline","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address","Net loss: -$81985 total PnL","Low win rate: 1%","Concentrated portfolio: 100% in single market","PnL divergence: $83035 gap between API and on-chain USDC flows","On-chain: possible automated trading (bot score: 30)"],"greenFlags":["Well-diversified: 627 unique markets","On-chain: diverse counterparty network"],"scoredAt":"2026-06-18T09:46:51.968Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance.","antiSybil":{"eligibleForGrade":true,"ageFactor":0.18415251007410208,"reason":"Wallet age 54d → difficulty factor 0.18","ageDaysUsed":54}}