{"wallet":"0x3cadb93ce001cb0ac411683a32437414550c92f0","displayName":"forki001","pseudonym":"Sophisticated-Spruce","raw":{"totalTrades":449,"totalVolume":4763.49,"totalPnl":-167.94,"realizedPnl":0,"unrealizedPnl":-167.94,"winRate":0.182,"openPositions":4,"resolvedBets":33,"uniqueMarkets":361},"calibration":2,"profitability":33,"consistency":76,"discipline":81,"sampleSize":60,"liveEdge":39,"trustScore":41,"trustGrade":"D","trustTier":"RISKY","confidence":{"level":"low","margin":15,"resolvedBets":33,"description":"D/41 ± 15 (low confidence, 33 resolved bets)"},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.040000000000000036,"totalBets":1,"correctBets":1,"actualRate":1,"expectedRate":0.040000000000000036,"error":0.96},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.2474,"totalBets":2,"correctBets":1,"actualRate":0.5,"expectedRate":0.2474,"error":0.2526},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.3113,"totalBets":1,"correctBets":1,"actualRate":1,"expectedRate":0.3113,"error":0.6887},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.4519866699281068,"totalBets":5,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.4519866699281068,"error":0.4519866699281068},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5431384770875683,"totalBets":13,"correctBets":2,"actualRate":0.15384615384615385,"expectedRate":0.5431384770875683,"error":0.3892923232414145},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6476369834101243,"totalBets":10,"correctBets":1,"actualRate":0.1,"expectedRate":0.6476369834101243,"error":0.5476369834101243},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.75,"totalBets":1,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.75,"error":0.75}],"brierScore":0.3336,"calibrationError":0.4758,"resolvedBets":33,"overconfidenceBias":0.3452,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":11.7,"luck":45.4,"edge":-47.37},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.2447,"resolution":0.0551,"uncertainty":0.1488},"brierSkillScore":-1.2424,"logLoss":0.9018,"logLossSkill":-0.902,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":1.7,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":2}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0x3cadb93ce001cb0ac411683a32437414550c92f0","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1775299649,"firstTxDate":"2026-04-04","walletAgeDays":15,"totalTransactions":610,"uniqueCounterparties":0,"inboundTxCount":0,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":609,"totalUsdcIn":4076.52,"totalUsdcOut":3960,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":2,"contractInteractions":0,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0,"medianTxIntervalSec":0,"burstTxCount":0,"provenanceScore":43,"provenanceGrade":"C","flags":["Young wallet: only 15 days old","Limited counterparties: only 0 unique addresses","No contract interactions despite activity — possible EOA-only transfers"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 610 txs","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T03:44:05.527Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":284.46,"pnlVerified":true},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0x3cadb93ce001cb0ac411683a32437414550c92f0","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":2663.5,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":119,"largestWithdrawal":86.04,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-04-05","fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T03:44:05.338Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 15 days, 610 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $2,664 in / $0 out across 119 withdrawal tx since 2026-04-05.","449 total trades across 361 markets.","33 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 47.6% — needs improvement.","Skill: 12/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 45/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -124.2% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.2447 RES=0.0551 UNC=0.1488.","Log loss: 0.9018 (skill: -90.2% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.","Timeliness: avg entry 1.7 days before resolution, 0% early mover."],"flags":["Overconfidence bias: 0.345","Brier Skill Score: -124.2% — performing worse than naive baseline","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Net loss: -$168 total PnL","Low win rate: 18%","On-chain coverage gap: 119 Polymarket USDC withdrawals observed, but only 33 resolved bets recovered from data-api + CLOB. Grade based on a subset of the wallet's forecasting history."],"greenFlags":["Strong resolution/discrimination: forecasts meaningfully diverge from base rate","Well-diversified: 361 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-20T03:44:07.335Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance.","cached":true,"cachedAt":1776656647335}